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天风证券:给予金迪克买入评级
Tianfeng Securities: give Kindick a buy rating

證券之星 ·  {{timeTz}}

2021-10-19天风证券股份有限公司杨松,张雪对金迪克进行研究并发布了研究报告《四价流感疫苗快速增长》,本报告对金迪克给出买入评级,当前股价为92.68元。

2021-10-19 Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd. Yang Song and Zhang Xue studied Kindick and released the research report "Rapid growth of tetravalent Influenza Vaccine". This report gives a buy rating to Kindick, and the current share price is 92.68 yuan.


  金迪克(688670)
  公司2021Q1~Q3实现营业收入3.49亿元,同比增长32.97%,归母净利润1.00亿元,同比增长106.69%,扣非归母净利润0.95亿元,同比增长72.72%。2021Q3单季度实现营业收入3.17亿元,同比增长81.06%,归母净利润1.23亿元,同比增长123.40%,扣非归母净利润1.2亿元。
  四价流感疫苗快速放量
  2021Q3单季度营业收入3.17亿元,同比增长81.06%,主要因为流感疫苗放量加速。根据中检院披露数据,截止到2021年9月27日,公司2021-2022流感季四价流感疫苗共批签发了42批。2021Q3单季度归母净利润1.23亿元,同比增长123.40%,利润增速高于收入增速,主要因为随着公司品牌、规模效应增强,毛利率提升,销售费用率降低。目前公司四价流感疫苗年产能为1000万剂,加快新建3000万剂年产能项目,未来增长可期。
  国家及各地鼓励流感疫苗接种,有助于流感疫苗接种率提升。
  每年接种流感疫苗是预防流感的有效手段,可以显著降低罹患流感和严重并发症的风险。今冬明春新冠与流感等呼吸道传染病叠加流行的风险依然存在,鼓励接种流感疫苗。2021年10月18日,国务院联防联控机制综合组印发《关于做好2021-2022年流行季流感防控工作的通知》,提出各地要依据《中国流感疫苗预防接种技术指南》,按照优先顺序对医务人员,大型活动参加人员和保障人员,养老机构、长期护理机构、福利院等人群聚集场所脆弱人群及员工,托幼机构、中小学校等重点场所人群以及60岁及以上的居家老年人、6月龄~5岁儿童、慢性病患者等重点和高风险人群开展接种。鼓励有条件的地方对上述人群实施免费接种,提升接种率,降低流感聚集性疫情的发生。
  股权激励提升员工凝聚力,促进公司长期发展
  2021年9月16日,公司董事会通过《关于向激励对象首次授予限制性股票的议案》,确定2021.9.16为首次授予日,以55.18元/股向369名激励对象首次授予65.20万股限制性股票;首次授予激励对象约占激励计划草案公告时公司员工总数的93.42%,有助于提升员工凝聚力,促进长期发展。
  盈利预测与投资评级
  我们认为目前中国流感疫苗接种率偏低,新冠和流感双重防控压力提升重视程度,且流感疫苗需每年接种,整体接种率提升叠加四价占比提高,公司作为四价流感疫苗重要生产企业,预计也将受益。我们预计公司2021-2023营业收入10.01/12.52/25.56亿元,同比增长69.9%/25.1%/104.1%;不考虑激励费用,预计归母净利润为3.06/3.78/7.88亿元,同比增长97.5%/23.5%/108.3%,维持“买入”评级。
  风险提示:中国流感疫苗接种率不及预期,疫苗行业竞争激烈的风险

Kindick (688670)The company's 2021Q1~Q3 realized operating income of 349 million yuan, an increase of 32.97% over the same period last year, and its net profit was 100 million yuan, an increase of 106.69% over the same period last year, deducting 95 million yuan of non-return net profit, an increase of 72.72% over the same period last year. 2021Q3 realized operating income of 317 million yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 81.06% over the same period last year, and its net profit was 123 million yuan, an increase of 123.40% over the same period last year, deducting 120 million yuan of non-return net profit.Rapid release of tetravalent influenza vaccine2021Q3's single-quarter operating income was 317 million yuan, an increase of 81.06% over the same period last year, mainly due to the accelerated release of influenza vaccine. According to the data disclosed by the Central people's Procuratorate, as of September 27, 2021, the company has issued 42 batches of tetravalent influenza vaccines for the 2021-2022 flu season. The net profit of 2021Q3 in a single quarter was 123 million yuan, an increase of 123.40% over the same period last year. The profit growth rate was higher than the revenue growth rate, mainly because the gross profit margin increased and the sales expense rate decreased with the enhancement of the company's brand and scale effect. At present, the company has an annual production capacity of 10 million doses of tetravalent influenza vaccine, speeding up the construction of 30 million doses of annual production projects, and future growth is expected.Influenza vaccination is encouraged in the country and around the country, which will help to improve the influenza vaccination rate.Annual influenza vaccination is an effective way to prevent influenza and can significantly reduce the risk of influenza and serious complications. There is still a risk that COVID-19 will be superimposed with influenza and other respiratory infectious diseases this winter and next spring, and influenza vaccination is encouraged. On October 18, 2021, the Comprehensive Group of Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council issued the Circular on doing a good job in Influenza Prevention and Control in the 2021-2022 epidemic season, proposing that all localities should, in accordance with the Technical Guide for Influenza vaccination in China, give priority to medical personnel, large-scale event participants and security personnel, vulnerable people and employees in crowd gathering places such as pension institutions, long-term care institutions, welfare homes, etc. Vaccination was carried out among people in key places such as kindergartens, primary and secondary schools, as well as elderly people aged 60 and above, children aged 6 months to 5 years, patients with chronic diseases and other key and high-risk groups. Encourage places where conditions are available to vaccinate the above-mentioned population free of charge, increase the vaccination rate and reduce the occurrence of influenza cluster epidemics.Equity incentive enhances employee cohesion and promotes the long-term development of the companyOn September 16, 2021, the company's board of directors adopted the "Resolution on the first Grant of restricted stocks to incentive targets", which determined 2021.9.16 as the first grant date, and awarded 652000 restricted shares to 369 incentive objects for the first time at 55.18 yuan per share. The first award of incentives accounts for about 93.42% of the total number of employees at the time of the announcement of the draft incentive plan, which helps to enhance employee cohesion and promote long-term development.Profit Forecast and Investment ratingWe believe that at present, the vaccination rate of influenza vaccine in China is on the low side, the dual pressure of COVID-19 and influenza prevention and control is paid more attention, and influenza vaccine needs to be vaccinated every year, and the proportion of superimposed tetravalent is increased with the increase of the overall vaccination rate. as an important manufacturer of tetravalent influenza vaccine, the company is also expected to benefit. We estimate that the company's operating income from 2021 to 2023 is 10.01 shock 12.52 / 2.556 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.9%, 25.1% and 104.1%. Excluding incentive fees, the estimated net profit of return to the home is 3.06 shock 3.78 / 788 million yuan, an increase of 97.5%, 23.5% and 108.3% over the same period last year, maintaining the "Buy" rating.Risk hint: the coverage rate of influenza vaccine in China is lower than expected, and the risk of fierce competition in the vaccine industry

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