A team led by Jan Hatzius, chief economist of Goldman Sachs Group Group, said in a recent report that US house prices are expected to rise by a further 16 per cent by the end of 2022.
"our model now forecasts that house prices will rise by a further 16 per cent by the end of 2022," the report said. Of all the shortages that affect the US economy, the housing shortage is probably the longest. "
Us house prices have risen by 20 per cent compared with a year ago. Tight housing stocks, low interest rates and household migration during the outbreak have spurred house prices to rise. First-time home purchases by millennials will only increase demand for housing.
At the same time, investors with cash on hand are trying to hedge against inflation by buying hard assets such as real estate, pushing up house prices.
"the supply and demand situation, which is the basis of our forecast that house prices will continue to boom for many years, remains intact," Hatzius wrote. "Housing inventory is still in a state of historical tension, and the survey of willingness to buy homes is still at a healthy level."
Many experts predict that given that the current market is so different, there will not be a real estate crash like the one in 2008. But buyers may expect prices to stabilise, especially if the Fed starts to shrink its balance sheet and raise interest rates in the future.
The supply of housing in the United States has increased slightly since the spring, but it is still well below pre-epidemic levels. Supply chain problems are slowing efforts to bring new homes to market.
"Home builders continue to face pre-epidemic disadvantages, especially the lack of construction workers and the lack of land available for construction," Hatzius said. The epidemic has exacerbated these problems. "
His team pointed out that supply chain disruptions, timber shortages and now economy-wide labor shortages will further lead to delays in housing supply.