Guggenheim Investment (Guggenheim Investments) said that as the two parties wrangled over raising the debt ceiling, the Fed may postpone the reduction of bond purchases, which will lead to further lower Treasury yields.
According to a report by Guggenheim, a "farce" about raising the government's debt ceiling is about to be staged, which could lead to market turmoil. So the Fed's decision to scale back its bond purchases is likely to be postponed until December. Most investors had expected the Fed's decision to reduce debt would be announced in November.
In addition, recent economic data, including a slowdown in job growth, are less supportive of the Fed's announcement of a cutback in stimulus policy at next week's policy meeting, the report said. Guggenheim analysts Brian Smedley and Matt Bush believe Treasury yields are likely to fall further as the Fed is patient and rising government fiscal risks are digested by the market. "
They point out that the spread between yields on five-year and 30-year Treasuries is smaller today than it was in August 2020, when Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, unveiled a framework for new policies to temporarily raise consumer prices, implying lower inflation expectations.
The spread between 5-year and 30-year Treasury yields narrowed
In addition, delaying the reduction in bond purchases could mean that the market is too optimistic about an interest rate hike in early 2023. In March, the agency's model showed that 10-year Treasury yields could turn negative in early 2022. It is reported that the yield on the 10-year Treasury note peaked in March, falling from an one-year high of 1.77% to the current level of about 1.33%.