高盛分析师周二提出了关键问题——在90天关税暂停期内，中国出口商和美国进口商将多么急切地争相下订单：
Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the 90 days of tariff suspension will trigger a wave of imports rushing to USA ports. Goldman Sachs pointed out that no one knows what will happen after 90 days. Should Walmart and others stock up on Christmas commodities as much as possible, or even prepare for 2026?
The truce in China-US trade has sparked a "super shipping" wave, and significantly reduced tariffs will create a 90-day frenzy of imports.
On May 12, the Ministry of Commerce of China released a joint statement on the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks, in which both sides canceled a total of 91% of the additional tariffs and suspended the implementation of 24% of counter-tariffs for 90 days. Faced with the significantly reduced import costs over the next 90 days, Goldman Sachs Analyst Sun predicts this will trigger a wave of imports heading to US ports. Real-time footage of container ships docking at US ports shows that congestion trends are already emerging.
Goldman Sachs Analyst raised a key question on Tuesday — how eagerly will Chinese exporters and US importers compete to place Orders during the 90-day suspension of tariffs.
We live in a highly uncertain world. Who knows what will happen in 90 days? Should companies like Walmart stock up on Christmas Commodities as much as possible, perhaps not just for 2025, but even potentially for 2026?
Coincidentally, Nomura Securities' Chief Economist for China, Lu Ting, stated in a report on Monday:
Due to many Chinese exporters likely having suspended shipments to the USA in April, the significant reduction in tariffs may trigger a wave of backlog exports.
Releasing pent-up demand will cause shipping rates to soar.
Freight forwarder companies like CMA CGM SA have referred to the 90-day suspension period and the reduction of tariffs between China and the USA as "good news". Additionally, a Maersk spokesperson stated:
Currently, our clients have a clear 90-day timeframe along with tariff reductions, and we are working to help them make the most of this window.
In another report, Jefferies Analysts pointed out that the freight rates on the trans-Pacific route between China and the USA have surged from $2,000 per forty-foot equivalent unit in mid-April to about $2,500 this week:
With the recovery of trade volume and the arrival of the busy season in July, capacity on the trans-Pacific route will become tight, putting marine transportation carriers in a favorable position to significantly increase freight rates.
Flexport founder and CEO Ryan posted on social media, similarly emphasizing the tight capacity.
Ryan emphasized the tight capacity: since the first day after the trade agreement was signed, the volume of marine transportation orders from China to the USA has increased by 35%. A large backlog of orders is about to arrive, and ships will soon be sold out.
