Trade easing stimulates a significant rise in the Marine Transportation Sector, with the main contract for European line shipping rising more than 10% on Tuesday. Both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks of port and shipping companies saw a surge to the daily limit, with China Airlines Ocean going up over 23%, and stocks like Ningbo Marine, Ningbo Ocean, and Haitong Development hitting the limit. Last night, the Dow Jones TRANSPORTATION INDEX temporarily surged by 6.52%.

According to media reports, American companies are trying to stockpile products in the USA during a 90-day window period to avoid a tariff spike after the period ends. Meanwhile, the 90-day tariff truce—exactly extending to mid-August—will coincide with the traditional shipping peak season, potentially leading to an earlier peak season and driving higher seasonal demand.

The latest data from the Xeneta platform shows that capacity has tightened significantly, with a 17% drop in the four-week rolling average capacity from Asia to North America since April 20. American companies are racing against time to resume production, cancel price increases, and streamline product lines.

When the "rush for shipment" meets the traditional peak season, the outlook for rising freight rates has already emerged. Since the beginning of this year, spot freight rates have dramatically declined, with shipping rates on both the U.S. West Coast and East Coast dropping by about half, though there was a slight rebound in early April.

The suspension of tariffs may trigger a new wave of rush for shipment, coinciding with the traditional shipping peak season.

Due to the reduction in tariffs, companies will race against time to resume production, cancel price increases, and stockpile Commodities.

Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, pointed out that the average transportation time for trans-Pacific trade is 22 days, and shippers may transport as many goods as possible within 90 days. This could lead to an early peak season this year and put upward pressure on freight rates.

According to the latest Research Reports from Citibank, this pause will trigger a wave of "rush shipments" before the traditional peak season arrives, said Citibank Analysts:

We expect that during the rush shipment period, Chinese exporters will accelerate inventory building in the USA, as some shippers have been in a wait-and-see mode. From a game theory perspective, shippers do not want to ultimately bear higher inventory costs than their peers, which is the dominant strategy in the multi-party game.

Citibank's Research Reports particularly emphasize the importance of timing:

The 90-day pause period ends in mid-August, overlapping with the traditional peak season, which could push up peak season demand, as China accounts for about 40% of container imports to the USA. Meanwhile, the pause period for other markets that started on April 9 will expire on July 8, meaning that May 14 to July 8 is a critical overlapping pause period for major container import sources entering the USA.

The report pointed out that this period just contrasts with the "blank sailings" (canceled sailings) that shipping companies started increasing from April, and it is expected that the blank sailing strategy will soon reverse to respond to demand growth.

The outlook for rising freight rates has already emerged.

Freight rates on major routes have already begun to rise. Futures for the European container route surged over 10% this morning, with the contract closing at a limit up yesterday. As the rush shipment starts, freight rates are expected to increase further in the coming weeks.

Since the beginning of this year, spot freight rates have significantly declined, with rates for both the US West Coast and East Coast dropping by about half, although there was a slight rebound in early April. Genimex CEO David Chitayat predicts that in the short term, shipping will be 'chaotic' due to everyone competing for space. He anticipates that container prices will rise, but they will be starting from a lower point.

The latest data from the Xeneta platform indicates that capacity has tightened significantly, with the four-week rolling average capacity from Asia to North America declining by 17% since April 20, reaching 265,000 TEU as of May 12. During the same period, blank sailings increased by 86%, totaling 89,100 TEU.

COFCO Futures believes that for the shipping routes from the Far East to Europe and America, the possible market pattern in the future may be: a weak reality recovery coupled with a strengthening of expectations, transitioning from negative feedback to positive feedback. First, expectations will be enhanced, followed by improvements in the reality of supply and demand in the market, with both factors influencing each other causing the market to shift from negative feedback to positive feedback. The cargo volume squeezed from the US routes is beginning to be dispatched in large quantities, some urgency due to concerns about the future, and the seasonal increment brought by the arrival of peak season, along with overall US restocking demand, will simultaneously put US routes in a state of tight capacity (it takes time for shipping companies to consider reallocating capacity back to US routes) and supply-demand imbalance; the pressure on European routes will ease, as marginal recovery in the economic demand side between China and Europe and the return of peak season expectations occurs.

Citigroup reiterated its 'Buy' rating on Evergreen Marine, with a target price of 282 New Taiwan dollars, listing it as the preferred choice in the Asia-Pacific shipping industry, followed by COSCO Shipping Holdings, with a target price of 13.3 Hong Kong dollars. In terms of US stocks, the most attractive are those that have experienced substantial sell-offs and have not yet recovered to the levels before April 2.