该行建议全面关注医疗健康产业投资机会，业绩和估值从全年角度来看，或将有望迎来双击，现在布局正当时。该行认为，集采趋势迎来大幅度优化甚至转向的大政策背景下，很多的细分板块的业绩和估值其实在2025Q1并不能得到及时反映，该行认为集采转向后市场情绪修复，以及医药真创新时代迎来回报（创新药，创新械），关税背景下自主可控产业链是今年确定性最高的几个重点方向。Jingu Financial News | CITIC SEC stated that in 2024, the overall revenue of listed Medical companies under CITIC SEC's industry classification will decrease by 0.62% year-on-year, with the net income down by 8.48% year-on-year, showing negative growth in both revenue and profit. Meanwhile, indicators such as gross margin, net margin, and operating cash flow/revenue have declined compared to 2022 and 2023. In Q1 2025, the overall revenue of listed Medical companies is expected to drop by 4.56% year-on-year, and the net income is expected to fall by 11.28%, leading to performance pressure.
Although the performance of the entire Medical Health Industry is still experiencing negative growth in 2024 and Q1 2025, the institution has observed bright phenomena and potential for improvement across various sub-Sectors. Thanks to policy optimization, commercial insurance promotion, and AI empowerment, along with technological innovations and tariff-driven trends, the demand or performance recovery trend of the Medical Health Industry in 2025 is promising. The institution expects to see overall improvements in revenue, profit, and cash flow in the Medical Health Industry. Revenue is likely to benefit from incremental payments by commercial insurance, the release of innovative products, and overseas expansion + import substitution, while profit may be supported by optimized group purchasing policies. Cash flow is expected to improve due to better hospital payments, creditor repayments, and a thawing environment for financing in the Biomedical sector.
From a positional perspective, the indices of the A-share Medical sector and the Hong Kong Stock innovative drugs sector are currently at the bottom of the 5-year range. In terms of institutional Hold Positions, Q4 2024 marks the lowest point for public fund holdings in the Medical Industry since Q2 2020, while Q1 2025 sees a rebound from that bottom.
The institution recommends comprehensive attention to investment opportunities in the Medical Health Industry. From an annual perspective, there is a potential for a double bump in performance and valuation, and now is the right time to lay the groundwork. The institution believes that under the large policy backdrop of significant optimization or even a shift in the trend of group purchasing, the performance and valuation of many sub-sectors may not be reflected in a timely manner by Q1 2025. The institution anticipates that after the shift in group purchasing, market sentiment will recover, and the true innovative era in Pharmaceuticals will yield returns (innovative drugs, innovative devices). With the tariff context, the self-sufficient Industry Chain is among the top focus areas with the highest certainty this year.
