报告显示，Morgan Stanley stated that historically, tariff policies usually push up prices after a few months and slow down economic growth after several quarters. The decline in shipping data confirms that this disruption is happening, and its effects have not fully manifested yet, which supports Morgan Stanley's view that the Federal Reserve should remain patient, contrary to the market's expectations for a rate cut in June.
Morgan Stanley warns that Global shipping data has declined across the board, indicating a dual risk of rising prices and slowing economic growth.
According to news from the Chasing Wind Trading Desk, the Morgan Stanley Analyst Seth B Carpenter's team pointed out in their latest Research Report that Global shipping data, especially that from the USA, is experiencing a 'remarkable decline.' This decline is not coincidental, but rather an important warning signal for trade, supply chains, and future economic conditions.
The report shows that the number of blank flights (i.e., flights canceled by carriers) in the USA has significantly increased, and the queue of ships waiting to dock has already shortened; the USA's GDP in the first quarter saw a contraction for the first time in many years, but the fundamental reason is not a collapse in domestic demand, but a statistical effect caused by a surge in imports, which indicates that the 'import rush' triggered by the tariff policy on April 2 is rapidly dissipating.
The report notes that although the non-farm payroll report released on Friday confirms that the real economy is temporarily sound, due to the 'import rush' effect, data will continue to show volatility in the short term, and in the long run, this may lead to a gradual economic slowdown and weak hard data.
As a key indicator of trade in Asia, South Korea's export data is also showing a declining trend. In the first 20 days of April, South Korea's exports fell more than 10% year-on-year, but there was a significant recovery in the last 10 days of the month, keeping the overall monthly decline in the single-digit range.
Morgan Stanley's in-depth analysis of the supply chain several months ago indicated that certain products might shift production to Vietnam, India, and Other neighboring countries, but the scope of these products is quite limited in the short term. Simply put, readjusting production factors takes time and involves considerable costs.
The report indicates that historically, tariff policies typically raise prices after a few months and lower economic growth after several quarters. Shipping data confirms that this disruption is occurring, and its effects have not yet fully materialized. This also validates Morgan Stanley's viewpoint that the Federal Reserve should remain patient, contrary to the market's expectations for a rate cut in June.
The report predicts that in the next one to two years, global economic growth will slow significantly, as the optimization of supply chains takes decades and cannot be rapidly reversed.
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