According to Zhitong Finance APP, as of the week ending April 25, the S&P 500 Index has surpassed the 5500-point integer mark benefitting from both eased tariff concerns and the start of the earnings season, which means that the index is already 225 points above Goldman Sachs' short-term target of 5300 points, with only 375 points of upside remaining to the 12-month target price of 5900 points. As of the close on April 25, the S&P 500 Index has risen to 5525.21 points. However, behind this rally led by Technology stocks, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin sounded the alarm: 41% of S&P 500 constituents will report earnings next week, and corporate investment decisions may hit the brakes due to increased policy uncertainty.

Goldman Sachs' calculations show that for every 100 basis points increase in policy uncertainty, corporate cash spending growth may slow by about 10 percentage points. Based on this model, the institution has significantly lowered its expected growth rate of S&P 500 corporate cash spending for 2025 from 11% down to 5%, bringing the total to $3.8 trillion. This downward revision far exceeds market expectations and reflects the heightened vigilance of companies regarding the Trump administration's trade policies, tax cuts, and changes in Federal Reserve personnel.

In specific spending categories, AI giants are supporting a "false prosperity" in capital expenditures (Capex): if the leading AI companies are excluded, overall capital expenditure growth will plummet from 9% to just 1%. Research and development spending, share buybacks, and dividend distributions are expected to progress at a moderate growth rate of 5%-6%, while cashMergers and Acquisitions.activities may contract by 10%, marking the quietest period since 2015.

Although Goldman Sachs' forecasts for dividend growth in 2026-2027 are 11% and 17% higher than the futures market, Kostin pointed out that the current market pricing already implies extreme pessimism—futures market expects the dividend per share in 2026 to drop by 4%, far exceeding the average decline of 1% during past recessionary periods after World War II. The strategist warned that if hard data like employment and consumer spending continue to weaken, the extent of dividend cuts may further widen.

In response to signals of economic slowdown, Goldman Sachs advises investors to focus on cash return capability. Kostin observed, "In recent months, the market has clearly preferred dividend stocks over growth stocks, a pattern that typically appears in economic downturn cycles." Data shows that the current dividend yield of the S&P 500 Index has risen to 1.8%, with the yield curve inversion with the 10-year U.S. Treasury narrowing to 30 basis points, indicating a substitution effect of bonds is beginning to manifest.

As the Earnings Reports season enters its core period, the market will face a crucial verification phase. Goldman Sachs specifically notes that close attention should be paid to companies' statements regarding capital expenditure plans, inventory levels, and supply chain arrangements, as these details will reveal the substantive impact of policy uncertainty on corporate decision-making. Under the dual pressure of fiscal deficits and a shift in monetary policy, U.S. stocks may face a moment of valuation logic reconstruction.