The lithium industry giant is finally going to emerge from the shadow of poor performance.

Last night, Tianqi Lithium Corporation announced a profit forecast, expecting a net income of over 80 million to 0.123 billion yuan in the first quarter, turning losses into profits year-on-year.

After experiencing a dark moment of a massive loss of 7.9 billion yuan last year, the lithium king has crawled out of four consecutive quarters of losses.

Today, Tianqi Lithium Corporation opened significantly higher. As of the time of this report, it has risen by 5.58% to 29.13 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 47.8 billion yuan.

However, since late November last year, the stock price of Tianqi Lithium Corporation has continued to decline, with a drop of over 11% this year.

Q1 has turned from loss to profit!

The performance forecast indicates that the net income attributable to the parent company in the first quarter of 2025 is expected to be between 82 million yuan and 0.123 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 3.897 billion yuan in the same period last year, achieving a turnaround from loss to profit year-on-year.

It is expected that the non-deductible net income in the first quarter will be between 32 million yuan and 48 million yuan, with a loss of 3.917 billion yuan in the same period last year. The basic EPS is expected to be between 0.05 yuan/share and 0.08 yuan/share.

It is worth mentioning that Tianqi Lithium Corporation delivered its worst 'report card' since listing in 2024.

According to the annual report from the previous year, last year, Tianqi Lithium Corporation achieved revenue of 13.063 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 67.75%. The net profit loss was 7.905 billion yuan, a sharp decrease of 208.32% year-on-year.

It should be noted that in 2023, Tianqi Lithium Corporation's revenue exceeded 40 billion yuan, with a net income attributable to the parent company of nearly 7.3 billion.

At that time, Tianqi Lithium Corporation also analyzed the reasons behind the performance collapse, including continuous adjustments in lithium prices, asset impairments, and risks associated with overseas investments.

Regarding the significant reversal in Q1 performance, Tianqi Lithium Corporation recently stated that this is mainly attributed to the improvement in lithium product price differentials, increased production capacity, and growth in investment income from affiliated companies.

Although the selling price of lithium products in Q1 decreased year-on-year, the pricing cycle for the subsidiary's lithium has shortened, and the impact of the time mismatch between raw materials and product prices has weakened. As the cost of newly purchased lithium concentrate is passed on to production, coupled with the ramp-up of proprietary factories and technological upgrades driving production and sales growth, production costs and market prices are becoming more aligned.

According to Bloomberg's predictions, SQM's performance in the first quarter of 2025 is expected to grow year-on-year, which will drive an increase in investment income confirmed by affiliated companies. This will undoubtedly contribute to the improvement of Tianqi Lithium Corporation's performance.

What signal is being released?

Over the past two years, the lithium industry has experienced a harsh winter.

Accompanied by an oversupply of lithium, the price of lithium carbonate has plummeted to rock bottom, and lithium mining companies are also facing enormous survival pressure.

Last year, the average spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell from 0.11 million yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 0.07 million yuan/ton at the end of the year, a decline of 36% for the entire year.

The sharp drop in prices has also directly impacted the performance of lithium mining companies.

Besides Tianqi Lithium Corporation, GANFENGLITHIUM, one of the dual lithium leaders, also saw its performance decline sharply last year.

In 2024, GANFENGLITHIUM's revenue was 18.906 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.66%, with a net income loss of 2.074 billion yuan, a significant decline of 141.93% year-on-year.

This also marked the company's first annual loss since its listing in 2010.

However, entering 2025, some signs of recovery are evident. A wave of production resumption and expansion led by leading enterprises, represented by Contemporary Amperex Technology, has begun.

The latest performance optimism from Tianqi Lithium Corporation will also inject a dose of strong confidence into the sluggish lithium market.

Looking ahead, some Institutions have indicated that lithium prices may continue to hit the bottom in 2025, but there will be periodic opportunities.

Zhaoyin Research previously stated in a Research Report that looking towards 2025, the demand side for lithium salts is still in a structurally oversupplied state, and while demand for energy storage batteries has seen a surge, the incremental growth is relatively limited.

However, compared to 2024, the supply-demand gap for lithium in 2025 has narrowed.

The industry continues to experience an oversupply, with weakening demand, and prices will remain in a bottom oscillation but have upward momentum. Seasonal mismatches in demand and supply may lead to opportunities for temporary price increases.

However, considering that production-restored enterprises will choose to resume production after price increases, the time and space for price rebound are relatively limited.

Orient believes that since the beginning of 2022, although the lithium battery industry has experienced a continuous decline in performance, the bottoming of upstream resources, the clearing and consolidation of the industry, and the improvement in processing fees and product structure are expected to support industry profits.

Considering the demand from different chains such as power, energy storage, and exports, lithium battery demand is expected to continue growing by 2025.