According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Dongxing has released a Research Report stating that a comprehensive observation indicates that the development of lightweight Autos may bring a significant increase in the Global demand for Magnesium metal. Additionally, developments in the Siasun Robot&Automation Industry, Magnesium Alloy construction templates, Magnesium-based hydrogen storage, and the low-altitude economy may also provide flexibility for the upward trend in Global demand for Magnesium metal. Benefiting from the lightweight, high-density, and high-strength characteristics of Magnesium metal, it has become a core production factor in the development of New energy Fund Industries. The institution believes that from 2024 to 2027, the Global demand for Magnesium metal may increase from 1.12 million tons in 2024 to 2.001 million tons in 2027, with a CAGR potentially reaching 21%. Based on its predictions for Global Magnesium supply and demand, it believes that from 2025 to 2027, the gap between Global raw Magnesium supply and demand may be 0.1/0.9/-0.1 tons, and the tight balance state of Global raw Magnesium supply and demand also suggests that Magnesium prices have already exhibited cyclical bottom characteristics.

The main points of Dongxing are as follows:

The development of the Autos Industry has become the core driving force for the increase in Magnesium demand.

According to statistics from the Magnesium branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the Global Magnesium consumption in 2024 is estimated to be 1.12 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. Observing the Global Magnesium consumption structure in 2024, the demand for Magnesium Alloy production reaches 0.55 million tons, accounting for nearly half (49%) of Global Magnesium demand. This is followed by Aluminum Alloy (0.295 million tons, accounting for 26%), Steel desulfurization (0.13 million tons, accounting for 12%), Metal reduction (0.085 million tons, accounting for 8%), and Other demand (0.06 million tons, accounting for 5%). Among the segmented markets for Magnesium Alloy demand, the Autos industry is the broadest application field for Magnesium Alloys, with a demand of 0.385 million tons in 2024, accounting for 70% of Magnesium Alloy consumption demand. Next is the 3C electronic products (0.11 million tons, accounting for 20%) and Other demand (0.055 million tons, accounting for 10%). Overall, in 2024, the demand for Magnesium Alloys in the Autos industry accounts for 34% of Global Magnesium demand, and considering the widespread use of Magnesium Aluminum Alloys in the Autos industry (with aluminum used in Autos accounting for 60% of aluminum alloy downstream demand), the total Magnesium usage in the Autos industry in 2024 may reach 0.56 million tons, accounting for 50%.

The increase in the penetration rate of lightweight Autos may drive up the demand for Magnesium Alloys.

By 2024, the amount of Magnesium used per vehicle for New energy vehicles has reached 10kg, while traditional Autos is around 5kg. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" in 2020, predicting that by 2025 and 2030, the amount of Magnesium Alloy usage per vehicle in China will reach 25kg and 30kg respectively, with the proportion of Magnesium Alloy in complete vehicles reaching 2% and 4% respectively. Combining national planning and predictions from industry Institutions, the institution believes that the Global demand for Magnesium Alloys corresponding to lightweighting in the Autos industry may grow from 0.57 million tons in 2024 to 1.35 million tons in 2027, with a CAGR potentially reaching 34%.

The development of the Siasun Robot&Automation industry brings new variables for the growth in demand for Magnesium Alloys.

Currently, the mainstream types of robots in the market are divided into Industrial Robots and Humanoid Robots. The Industrial Robot industry is in a continuous upward cycle. According to analyses by IFR and other Institutions regarding the development of the Global Industrial Robot industry, it is estimated that the global demand for Magnesium Alloys in Industrial Robots may increase from 0.0031 million tons in 2024 to 0.0067 million tons in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 28% during this period. The mass production of Humanoid Robots is imminent, and the increase in production of Humanoid Robots may bring greater growth elasticity to Magnesium demand. In the global market, companies like Tesla and FigureAI have already entered the mass production cycle for Humanoid Robots, and domestic companies like UBTECH and Yushutech are also advancing the mass production of Humanoid Robots.

Combining analyses from the GGII and other Institutions regarding the development of the Global Humanoid Robot industry, it is expected that the global demand for Magnesium Alloys in Humanoid Robots may increase from 0.0002 million tons in 2024 to 0.0085 million tons in 2030, with a CAGR of approximately 93% during this period. Considering the market forecasts for both Industrial Robots and Humanoid Robots, it is believed that the Robot industry has become a new growth point for Magnesium demand, with the global Magnesium demand corresponding to the Robot industry expected to increase from 0.0033 million tons to 0.0081 million tons between 2024 and 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 34%.

Risk warning: Magnesium supply exceeds expected growth, downstream demand industries develop less than expected, the growth rate of global New energy Fund production is less than expected, global liquidity tightens more than expected, interest rates rise sharply more than expected, and regional conflicts intensify and diffuse.