According to the latest data from Canalys, in the first quarter of 2025, the total shipment of global desktops, laptops, and workstations increased by 9.4% year-on-year, reaching 62.7 million units. Among them, laptop shipments (including mobile workstations) reached 49.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10%; desktop shipments (including desktop workstations) were 13.3 million units, an increase of 8% year-on-year.

Canalys stated that the increase in shipments in the first quarter was mainly due to OEM manufacturers accelerating their shipment pace to the USA before the Trump administration announced its first round of tariff policies. However, as higher tariffs come into effect in more countries, their direct and indirect impacts will affect the recovery momentum of the global PC market and the upgrade process of the Windows 11 system.

Ishan Dutt, the chief Analyst at Canalys, stated: "Thanks to the push of manufacturers accelerating shipments to the USA in response to the first round of tariff policies, PC shipments saw a significant increase in the first quarter of 2025." Among them, Lenovo (00992) and HP Inc (HPQ.US) saw their shipments in the USA grow by approximately 20% and 13% respectively in the first quarter. Despite the actual demand from end users remaining relatively stable, this proactive strategy allowed manufacturers and channels to stock up in advance before cost increases, thus driving the growth in shipments. Manufacturers are also taking similar measures for the new round of tariffs that will take effect on April 9, 2025. However, with inventory levels gradually returning to normal and consumers facing higher prices, market performance may slow in the coming quarters.

The impact of tariffs on Consumer demand is expected to be more significant. As the prices of various Commodities rise, spending on purchasing more expensive PCs will have to be weighed against other daily expenses. Meanwhile, business users, especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMB), will also face certain pressure, potentially slowing the pace of device replacement before the servicing of Windows 10 ends in October 2025. Dutt pointed out: "A survey conducted in March with channel partners familiar with SMB PC upgrade plans showed that 14% of respondents indicated their clients are unaware that Windows 10 is about to stop servicing, and another 21% stated that while their clients are informed, they have no upgrade plans yet. For these clients, delays in planning may mean facing higher costs when upgrading devices."

Despite countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and India being included in the new round of tariffs, leading OEM manufacturers are still accelerating production diversification, continuously shifting capacity from China to overseas. It is expected that by the end of 2025, most PC manufacturers will have completed the shipment transfer towards the USA market to enhance supply chain flexibility and risk resistance, while also alleviating the cost pressure brought by tariffs. For example, HP Inc's CEO Enrique Lores revealed in the latest Earnings Reports conference call that by the end of this year, 90% of the products sold by HP Inc in the USA will be produced outside of China.

Canalys Senior Analyst Ben Yeh stated, "Although these alternative countries also face tariff issues, the overall tax rates still have some cost advantages compared to China. More importantly, these countries have shown a willingness to negotiate with the USA, increasing the possibility of future tariff reductions or exemptions. In contrast, China has quickly introduced a new round of counter-tariff policies. Against this background, the production transfer plans of major manufacturers are still progressing steadily and will not be significantly adjusted in the short term due to changes in tariff policies, unless more specific implementation details are released."

In the first quarter of 2025, Lenovo maintained its leading position in the Global PC market, with notebook and desktop shipments reaching 15.2 million units, achieving an 11% growth. HP Inc, ranked second, saw a year-over-year shipment increase of 6%, reaching 12.8 million units. After several consecutive quarters of decline, Dell's first-quarter shipments reached 9.5 million units, achieving a 3% growth. Apple, with a strong growth of 22%, firmly held fourth place with shipments reaching 6.5 million units, occupying 10.4% of the market share. ASUS entered the top five with a 9% growth and shipments of 4 million units.