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大摩:对美国市场敞口较低的OEM所受的影响较小 看好申洲国际(02313)、九兴控股(01836)及裕元集团(00551)

Morgan Stanley: The impact on OEMs with lower exposure to the USA is relatively small. Bullish on Shenzhou International Group Holdings Limited Unsponsored ADR (02313), STELLA HOLDINGS (01836), and YUE YUEN IND (00551).

Zhitong Finance ·  Apr 7 11:49

Regarding Outfits OEM, the institution is Bullish on Shenzhou International Group Holdings Limited Unsponsored ADR (02313) due to its high profits, and its revenue exposure to the USA market is lower compared to other OEMs. Next, they are Bullish on CRYSTAL INTL (02232). As for Footwear OEM, the institution is Bullish on STELLA HOLDINGS (01836) and YUE YUEN IND (00551) in that order.

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Morgan Stanley released a Research Report stating that, due to tariffs imposed by the USA, the efforts of OEMs in diversifying procurement and production bases have little significance, as most countries that OEMs have a large capacity in (such as Vietnam) are currently facing additional tariffs on their export products. This is expected to put pressure on the Operation of OEMs, as there is no short-term solution to transfer Orders to avoid the impact of tariffs.

The firm expects that although various countries may start actively engaging in dialogue with the US government to seek solutions to the additional tariffs, it still believes that a quantitative analysis of the financial impacts on OEMs under different scenarios is necessary. The firm found that the impact on suppliers is more manageable only when the average additional tariff is limited to below 20%, and OEMs do not have to bear tariffs exceeding 25%; OEMs with higher profit margins or low exposure to the US market are less affected compared to their peers; on the other hand, OEMs with lower profit margins and high exposure to the US market will inevitably face greater negative impacts from tariffs.

In addition, for Outfit OEMs, the firm is Bullish on Shenzhou International Group Holdings Limited Unsponsored ADR (02313) due to its high profits, and compared to Other OEMs, it has lower revenue exposure to the US market. The firm is also Bullish on CRYSTAL INTL (02232). For Footwear OEMs, the firm is Bullish on STELLA HOLDINGS (01836) and YUE YUEN IND (00551) in that order.

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