Original title: if the Olympic Games are cancelled, the Japanese economy will be even worse, with a direct loss of up to 16.6 billion US dollars!

Economists say canceling the Tokyo Olympics will do further damage to Japan's economy, which is already on the brink of a double-dip recession. Economists at the Nomura Comprehensive Institute have warned that the direct impact of canceling the Olympic Games on Japan's economy will be as high as $16.6 billion.

Although Prime Minister Suga Yiwei insists that the Olympic Games will be held as scheduled, it seems that he will have to extend the current state of emergency until mid-June, when there is only a month to go before the opening of the Olympic Games. Analysts who have taken into account the extension of the state of emergency now expect the Japanese economy to contract for the second consecutive quarter.

Economist Yuki Yoshima said that the extension of the epidemic emergency and the cancellation of the Olympic Games at the last minute would have a further impact on the Japanese economy, while slowing the much-anticipated summer recovery. it will reduce economic growth for the whole of this year by as much as 1.7 percentage points. "the cancellation of the Olympic Games may be due to the further deterioration of the epidemic, which will have a broader impact on the economy," he said. His baseline scenario is that the Olympic Games will still be held as scheduled.

Although Japan has won praise for controlling the epidemic in the first phase of the crisis, it is now paying the price for the slow promotion of the vaccine, which forces it to expand emergency limits to contain the pressure on its health system caused by the high number of infections.

In the current emergency, the debate over whether the Olympic Games should continue is intensifying.

Recent opinion polls show that the majority of the public is opposed to hosting this year's Olympic Games, and some prominent business leaders have questioned the wisdom of promoting the Olympic Games.

Asahi Shimbun, one of Japan's largest daily newspapers and a sponsor of the event, joined in on Wednesday, calling for the Olympic Games to be shelved.

Economists believe that if the plan to host the Olympic Games is cancelled, the Japanese economy will enter a bad period of difficult recovery.

However, first Life Research Institute (Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute)) Chief Economist Yoshihiro Yongbin said: "We should not judge whether or not to host the Olympic Games on the basis of economic impact." If this activity can be carried out without causing any trouble to COVID-19 's medical system, then we should do so. If not, we should not do this. " Yongbin Liguang also said that canceling the plan would result in a direct economic loss of about 1.4 trillion yen (US $12.9 billion). By contrast, Takeshi Mukuchi, an economist at the (Nomura Research Institute Ltd.) of Nomura Comprehensive Research Institute, estimates 1.8 trillion yen ($16.6 billion) based mainly on lost consumption.

Most economists point out that a decision to ban overseas audiences has deprived the Olympics of the last major driver of growth. Many of them say that most of Japan's direct benefits from the Olympic Games have been realized through construction.

Yongbin pointed out that infrastructure investment related to the Olympic Games was about 7.5 trillion yen in the fiscal year to March 2020, at a time when the epidemic was beginning to root out Japan's Olympic ambitions.

Not everyone agrees that it is necessary to take the fate of the Olympic Games into account in this year's growth calculation.

Kazuma Maeda, an economist at Barclays Securities (Barclays Securities), believes that the downside risk to the Japanese economy is increasing, and the emergency delay will lead to a greater contraction in the economy this quarter. But he says the key to economic recovery is not the Olympics. The focus of the consumer mentality is on progress in vaccination, not the Olympics, which he thinks is more important.

Huitong net reminder

Summing up the above information, we can see that the call for the cancellation of the Olympic Games in Japan is becoming louder and louder. However, if it is really cancelled, Japan will suffer a lot of losses, making the economy even worse and suppressing the rebound of the yen. At present, Japan has not yet made a final decision, and investors need to pay close attention to the news related to the Olympic Games in the future.

The dollar is against the yen

The trend has a certain impact.

（

The dollar is against the yen

Daily line chart)

9:47 Beijing time on May 27th

The dollar is against the yen

报109.14/16。