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Benign Growth For Cerence Inc. (NASDAQ:CRNC) Underpins Stock's 39% Plummet

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 14 02:57

The Cerence Inc. (NASDAQ:CRNC) share price has softened a substantial 39% over the previous 30 days, handing back much of the gains the stock has made lately. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 33% in that time.

Since its price has dipped substantially, Cerence's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.8x might make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the wider Software industry in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/S ratios above 4.6x and even P/S above 10x are quite common. However, the P/S might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

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NasdaqGS:CRNC Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry March 13th 2025

How Cerence Has Been Performing

While the industry has experienced revenue growth lately, Cerence's revenue has gone into reverse gear, which is not great. Perhaps the P/S remains low as investors think the prospects of strong revenue growth aren't on the horizon. So while you could say the stock is cheap, investors will be looking for improvement before they see it as good value.

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Cerence.

Is There Any Revenue Growth Forecasted For Cerence?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as depressed as Cerence's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the industry decidedly.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 30% decrease to the company's top line. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 37% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to climb by 2.1% during the coming year according to the seven analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 19%, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this in consideration, its clear as to why Cerence's P/S is falling short industry peers. It seems most investors are expecting to see limited future growth and are only willing to pay a reduced amount for the stock.

What Does Cerence's P/S Mean For Investors?

Shares in Cerence have plummeted and its P/S has followed suit. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

As we suspected, our examination of Cerence's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior revenue outlook is contributing to its low P/S. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Cerence (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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