这是因为，美国CPI的持续上升为特朗普带来了政策上的“软肋”。Analyst Michael Hartnett pointed out that inflation in the USA is surging, indicating that in the coming months, Trump must "play small" on tariffs and immigration issues instead of making "big moves" to avoid triggering a second wave of inflation.
Under the sustained rising inflation pressure, the USA CPI recently hit a new high.
As the market worries about the resurgence of inflation, Bank of America Analyst Michael Hartnett pointed out that this "hot" inflation data may actually bring "blessings in disguise" to the bonds and stocks markets.
This is because the continuous rise of the USA CPI brings a policy "soft spot" for Trump. In the coming months, Trump must engage in "small-scale" actions on tariffs and immigration issues, rather than making "big moves", to avoid triggering a second wave of inflation.
"Trump must implement small-scale tariff and immigration policies to avoid triggering a second wave of inflation."
At the same time, Hartnett analyzed that despite the Federal Reserve facing the challenge of worsening inflation, the asymmetry of its policy (the rate of interest rate cuts is faster than rate hikes) and lack of credibility regarding inflation make fiscal policy adjustments even more complex.
As inflation heats up, is the market experiencing "blessings in disguise"?
Under the sustained rising inflation pressure, the USA CPI recently hit a new high, attracting widespread market attention.
In January, the USA Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations. Hartnett believes that this "hot" inflation data could actually be a "blessing" for the Bonds and Stocks markets.
He pointed out that the average monthly increase in CPI over the past 3-6 months has been 0.3-0.4%, and the USA CPI year-on-year is expected to tend toward 4% in the next six months. In the coming months, Trump must engage in "small-scale" actions rather than "major moves" on tariffs and immigration issues to avoid triggering a second wave of inflation. This situation could help alleviate market concerns over the escalation of USA tariff policies.
Global trade patterns: a delicate balance of interdependence.
The financial situation of the USA government is also concerning. According to the latest data, the USA budget deficit surged 25% in the past four months, reaching 840 billion dollars, indicating that government spending is indeed accelerating. Hartnett's analysis points out that despite the Federal Reserve facing challenges from increased inflation, the asymmetry of its policies (faster rate cuts than rate hikes) and lack of inflation credibility complicate adjustments to fiscal policy.
As government budgets gradually expand, concerns about policies related to large-scale spending are beginning to surface. Hartnett believes:
“Congress may adopt two reconciliation bills instead of one, reducing the likelihood of significant cuts to defense spending.”
Hartnett remains Bullish on the BIG investment strategy he proposed earlier:
- Bonds: He believes that 5% could be the 'multi-year peak' for the 30-year US treasury yield. The likelihood of bond yields dropping significantly below 4% in the short term is low.
- International: Hartnett is Bullish on the international stock market in 2025, viewing it as a bet on the recovery of the global manufacturing cycle. He points out that Chinese technology stocks such as Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi have risen 22% since January 20, far surpassing the USA's Mag7.
Gold: Gold prices continue to rise and set a new all-time high far exceeding $2900 on Friday.
