牛牛敲黑板：今年「五一」假期国内客流和旅游收入有望出现显著上升，公安部预测客流量将达2.5亿人次。2020年「五一」假期（5月1-5日），全国共计接待国内游客1.15亿人次，实现国内旅游收入475.6亿元。
目前正值春夏之交出游旺季，受国内疫情得到有效防控、以及高速公路小客车免费通行等利好因素影响，「五一」假期出游出行需求将集中释放。
根据公安部交管局今天发布的消息，今年「五一」假期民众旅游探亲需求强劲复苏，机票、门票、酒店等预订量已显著超过2019年同期，预计全国客流量将达2.5亿人次。第三方的调研结果也佐证了这一预判，根据第三方测评机构CAPSE今天发布的《五一出行预测及旅客需求分析》预测，2021年五一小长假全国预计将接待旅客超3亿人次，而旅客旅游出行占比将是去年同期的2.8倍。而根据文化和旅游部的数据显示，2020年「五一」假期（5月1-5日），全国共计接待国内游客1.15亿人次。
旅游收入方面，CAPSE在报告当中表示，今年「五一」期间国内旅游收入预计将超过2000亿元。而文化和旅游部的数据显示，2020年「五一」假期全国共计实现国内旅游收入475.6亿元，2019年同期则是1177亿元。日均数据上，2020年「五一」假期旅游日均收入为95.12亿，较2019年同期的294.3亿元有较大幅度的回落。有分析表示，考虑到景区接待量被限定不得超30%，2020年「五一」假期旅游日均收入为2019年同期的32%，这一数据也在合理范围。
值得注意的是，虽然2020年全国仍笼罩在新冠阴影之下，但是当年「五一」的旅游数据仍然大幅度超过中国社科院当时的预测。根据社科院旅游研究中心的研究数据，在谨慎预测的情境下，预测2020年「五一」期间旅游总人次为0.31亿人次，旅游总收入的预测值为165.78亿元，分别较上年同期减少84.1%和85.91%。
Niuniu knocks on the blackboard: domestic passenger flow and tourism revenue are expected to rise significantly during the May Day holiday this year, and the Ministry of Public Security predicts that the number of passengers will reach 250 million. During the May Day holiday in 2020 (May 1-5), the country received a total of 115 million domestic tourists, achieving domestic tourism income of 47.56 billion yuan.
At present, it is the peak travel season at the turn of spring and summer, and due to the effective prevention and control of the domestic epidemic situation, as well as the free passage of highway minibuses and other favorable factors, the demand for travel during the May Day holiday will be released centrally.
According to news released today by the Traffic Administration of the Ministry of Public Security, the demand for people to visit relatives during the May Day holiday this year has recovered strongly, and the number of air tickets, tickets, hotels and other bookings has significantly exceeded that of the same period in 2019, and the number of passengers across the country is expected to reach 250 million. Third-party research results also support this prediction. According to the May Day Travel Forecast and passenger demand Analysis released today by CAPSE, a third-party evaluation agency, the country is expected to receive more than 300 million tourists during the May Day short holiday in 2021, while the proportion of tourists traveling will be 2.8 times that of the same period last year. According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, a total of 115 million domestic tourists were received during the May 1 holiday in 2020.
In terms of tourism revenue, CAPSE said in the report that domestic tourism revenue is expected to exceed 200 billion yuan during the May Day period this year. According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, domestic tourism revenue totaled 47.56 billion yuan during the May Day holiday in 2020, compared with 117.7 billion yuan in the same period in 2019. According to the average daily data, the average daily income of tourism during the May Day holiday in 2020 is 9.512 billion, which is much lower than that of 29.43 billion yuan in the same period in 2019. Some analysts said that considering that the reception volume of scenic spots is limited to no more than 30%, the average daily income of tourism during the May Day holiday in 2020 is 32% of that in the same period in 2019, which is also within a reasonable range.
It is worth noting that although the country was still shrouded in the shadow of COVID-19 in 2020, the tourism data of that year's "May Day" still greatly exceeded the forecast of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences at that time. According to the research data of the Tourism Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, under the prudent forecast situation, the total number of tourists during the May Day period in 2020 is predicted to be 31 million, and the total tourism revenue is forecast to be 16.578 billion yuan, down 84.1% and 85.91% respectively compared with the same period last year.
