According to the research report issued by Bank of America, in December, the package volume of ZTO Express, YTO Express, Yunda, STO Express, J&T Express, SF Express, JD.com Logistics, and Cainiao increased year-on-year by 18.6%, 23.5%, 18.9%, 31.7%, 30.9%, 19.5%, 40.1%, and 17.4%, respectively. The overall growth of the industry is consistent with the high-frequency data, and some companies such as JD.com Logistics, J&T Express, and STO Express have increased their market shares compared to the previous year.
In terms of year-on-year comparison, the ASP (average revenue per order) of STO Express, YTO Express, and Yunda decreased by 8.10%, 5.02%, and 13.34%, respectively; in terms of month-on-month comparison, the ASP of Yunda and YTO remained stable, while the ASP of STO declined by 3% to 2.02 yuan. Express companies stated that the ASP has shown a downward trend since late November, and price competition may be inevitable in 2025. However, there is still potential for growth in the industry volume, and the initial business volume brought by the newly launched Wechat Mini Program mall has performed strongly. It is expected that the growth rate of the industry business volume in 2025 may exceed the market's expected 10-15%.
The bank mentioned that due to the earlier drop in temperatures this year and the boost from the December e-commerce shopping festival, the LTL (less than truckload) business volume performed strongly, with SF Express's LTL business volume growing nearly 20% year-on-year. The ASP of SF Express in December decreased by 9.1% year-on-year and 1% month-on-month to 14.55 yuan. The revenue from time-sensitive package services achieved single-digit growth, with the business volume achieving mid-to-high single-digit growth, and there were corresponding changes in the daily average number of reverse logistics packages and e-commerce packages. The international business and supply chain income of SF Express increased by 24.6% year-on-year, reaching 6.8 billion yuan.
The bank maintains a Buy rating on JD.com Logistics with a Target Price of 18 Hong Kong dollars per share, based on a 5.5 times EV/EBITDA valuation for the fiscal year 2025. Its profitability is gradually improving, but there is a lack of shareholder return plans (such as repurchase and dividends). Upside risks include increased e-commerce penetration, JD Group's total commodity transaction value (GMV) growth exceeding expectations, and strong domestic consumer demand driving increased external third-party client demand; downside risks include slowing e-commerce penetration growth, JD Group's GMV growth falling short of expectations, and weak domestic consumer demand leading to reduced external third-party client demand.
Maintain a Buy rating on ZTO Express with a Target Price of 26.3 US dollars per share, based on a 14 times P/E valuation for the fiscal year 2025, reflecting its higher unit Net income cushion capability in the price competition within the express industry. Upside risks include stronger-than-expected business volume growth driven by consumer recovery and unexpected exits of major competitors; downside risks include e-commerce business volume growth slower than expected, rising oil prices leading to cost pressures, and intensified competition causing greater pressure on ASP.