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西南证券2025年食品饮料投资策略:白酒基本面依然承压 大众品优选个股

Southwest Securities 2025 CSI SWS Food & Beverage investment strategy: Baijiu(Chinese Liquor) fundamentals remain under pressure; select individual stocks for mass consumer goods.

Zhitong Finance ·  Jan 16 08:12

With the recovery of the B-end Dining Industry and the continuing health trend of C-end Condiment, the landscape of the Condiment Industry will continue to improve.

According to Zhituo Finance APP, Southwest Securities released a Research Report stating that within the current Consumer Food & Beverage industry, various segments are exhibiting different development trends and opportunities. Among them, the long-term allocation value of the Baijiu(Chinese Liquor) sector is prominent; Beer is expected to experience a good recovery in 2025 due to the low base effect and economic stimulus policies. Although the demand for Dairy Products is temporarily weak, the decline in raw milk prices allows dairy companies to release profit flexibility; Condiments benefit from the recovery in the B-end Dining sector and the C-end health trend, leading to ongoing improvements in the industry structure. The leading companies in frozen food, leveraging their scale advantages, are demonstrating significant advantages amid industry growth and increasing concentration.

The main points from Southwest Securities are as follows:

Baijiu(Chinese Liquor): The long-term allocation value is prominent. Currently, high-end and sub-high-end Baijiu(Chinese Liquor) are under different pressures due to economic impacts, with the wholesale price of Pu Fei decreasing from around 2700 yuan during the Spring Festival in 2024 to around 2200 yuan currently, gradually stabilizing after late June; for regional liquor, the prices are relatively rigid and have slightly decreased; sub-high-end is more affected by business impacts, resulting in sales not meeting expectations, awaiting improvement in consumption; high-end and certain regional liquors are recommended. Looking at the mid-to-long-term allocation value: the fundamental attributes of Baijiu(Chinese Liquor) have not significantly changed, and the logic of increased market share for famous brands remains valid; the Baijiu(Chinese Liquor) upgrade has only been influenced in the short term, while the long-term upgrade trend has not changed; the primary drinking demographic for Baijiu(Chinese Liquor) remains relatively stable; after a deep adjustment, the valuation of leading Baijiu(Chinese Liquor) companies in 2025 is at 13-20 times, already at a historical low.

Beer: Even in the current slowdown of consumption upgrade trends, the continuous upgrade of product structure still provides ample momentum for the industry to move upscale. In Q1 2024, the overall industry sales were significantly pressured due to the high comparative base; in Q2 and Q3, sales faced pressure from weak demand recovery and frequent rainy weather, leading to overall sales growth pressure. From the perspective of sales base, the low base effect will carry through the entire year of 2025, and the market also has low expectations for the beer industry; especially, national leading brands are expected to benefit greatly from this. From a broader environmental perspective, as economic stimulus policies continue to ramp up in 2025, overall Dining consumption is expected to steadily recover, and Beer, being a closely related industry to Dining, is expected to achieve good recovery. Recommendations include Tsingtao Brewery (600600.SH) and Beijing Yanjing Brewery (007291.SZ).

Dairy Products: The demand for Dairy Products is weak. Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group is actively adjusting its channels and controlling shipment pace; the decline in raw milk prices benefits dairy companies in terms of profit flexibility. Key recommendations include Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (600887.SH) and New Hope Dairy (002946.SZ).

Condiments: With the recovery of the B-end Dining industry and the ongoing health trend in C-end condiments, the industry structure will continue to improve. The premium upgrade in high-tier markets + channel penetration in lower-tier markets + recovery in social dining demonstrates strong anti-cyclical capabilities, while the two growth logic of product structure upgrade and increasing concentration remain unchanged; select leading enterprises in robust sub-industry fundamentals with strong performance certainty, recommending Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food (603288.SH), Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding (600872.SH), Qianhe Condiment And Food (603027.SH), and Jiangsu Hengshun Vinegar-Industry (600305.SH).

Frozen food: Major players have obvious advantages, and long-term growth can be expected. The frozen hot pot ingredient industry maintains double-digit growth in the long term, while leading companies have significant scale advantages; competition in the rice and noodle products sector is intense, and at the same time, the B-end and C-end channels are mutually infiltrating, accelerating the elimination of small and medium-sized brands, which is beneficial for increasing the industry's concentration. Recommended companies include Anjoy Foods Group (603345.SH), Sanquan Food Co.,Ltd (002216.SZ), and Qianwei Central Kitchen (001215.SZ).

Food Comprehensive: Recommended leading companies in various sub-sectors. Key recommendations include Angel Yeast Co.,Ltd (600298.SH), Juewei Food Co.,Ltd. (603517.SH), Chacha Food (002557.SZ), Yanker Shop Food (002847.SZ), Toly Bread Co., Ltd. (603866.SH), and Chenguang Biotech Group (300138.SZ) among the leading companies and quality stocks in the sub-sectors.

Risk Warning: The prices of high-end liquor may significantly decline; there is a risk of fluctuation in raw material prices; Food Safety risks.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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