他预计，本周公布的去年12月消费者物价指数(CPI)将显示核心通胀仍维持在3.3%，远高于美联储2%的目标。The Singapore Banks believe that the Federal Reserve's easing cycle is coming to an end, expecting only one more rate cut of 25 basis points in the first half of 2025, keeping the federal funds rate at 4%-4.25% until the end of 2025.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, Singapore's Banks believe that the Federal Reserve's easing cycle is nearing its end, predicting only one more interest rate cut (25 basis points) in the first half of 2025, which will keep the federal funds rate at 4%-4.25% until the end of 2025. Therefore, the Institution remains cautious about long-term Bonds in the USA, maintaining its forecast that the 10-year US Treasury yield will reach 5% this year, while continuing to be Bullish on the US dollar.
The Chief Economist of Singapore's Banks, Mohan Su, stated that the employment data from the USA in December last year far exceeded expectations. Non-farm employment increased by 0.256 million, much higher than the market expectation of 0.165 million. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, and average hourly wages rose by 0.3%, remaining robust. Non-farm employment data shows that the USA continues to move towards a 'soft landing' in 2025 rather than falling into an economic recession.
He expects that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December last year, to be released this week, will show that core inflation remains at 3.3%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.
