share_log

国君国际宏观:美元为何反季节性上扬?

Guokun International Macro: Why is the US dollar rising out of season?

Zhitong Finance ·  Oct 10 03:55

The causality between asset pricing in China and the USA is mutually reinforcing, which is a phenomenon worth paying attention to. Your internal factors may be my external factors, and vice versa.

According to the AI Finance app, Guojun International released a research report stating that the performance of the US economy was significantly better than expected, and the main factors driving the anti-seasonal rise of the US dollar were the market's over-speculation on interest rate cuts. For the Hong Kong stock market, the US rate cut was originally a bullish external factor for boosting the stock market, but if the US dollar interest rates rise rapidly, the Hong Kong stock market may also face pressure at some point.

Guojun International Macro believes that the recent performance of the US dollar has caught the market off guard. The fourth quarter is usually a time when the US dollar shows weaker seasonal performance, but since October, the US dollar has been rapidly appreciating. From the perspective of interest rates, US bond yields have rebounded recently, the market's expectation of a significant Fed interest rate cut has cooled, becoming a basis for the US dollar's strength.

From a cross-currency comparison, there are signs of further widening the interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Euro. At the same time, although the Euro has started to weaken, it still does not seem as weak as the interest rate differential suggests. From this perspective, the Euro may further weaken. In other words, the US dollar has further momentum to rise.

The factors affecting the US dollar mainly come from two aspects. Firstly, the performance of the US economy is significantly better than expected, especially in September. Subsequently, the market further lowered its expectations of interest rate cuts for the year. The other factor is the market's previous over-speculation on interest rate cut trades. In the early stages of interest rate cut trades, a large accumulation of positions will lead to a rapid decline in interest rates. However, once such trades become overly concentrated, they may bring about significant backlash effects when the trades reverse.non-farm payroll dataSince the announcement, market sentiment has further reduced expectations of interest rate cuts for the year. Another factor is the market's over-speculation on interest rate cut trades. In the initial phase of rate cut trades, a significant accumulation of positions can lead to a rapid decline in interest rates. However, if such trades become too concentrated, they may result in significant backlash effects when the trades reverse.

External factors leading to the rise in US bond yields include the increase in crude oil prices due to the Middle East conflict. Guojun International Macro believes this will be reflected in tonight's US CPI data. As CPI is monthly data, if this month's data exceeds expectations, the psychological impact on the market will continue for some time. Another external factor affecting US interest rates is the continuous large-scale economic stimulus introduced by China, which has to some extent boosted market expectations of reflation.

At the same time, there has been a significant increase in Hong Kong dollar rates, which will also create a "siphon effect" on US dollar assets. This is because in recent years, a large amount of Hong Kong dollar funds have shifted to purchasing US fixed-income products. However, the recent surge in the Hong Kong stock market has led to some funds withdrawing from US fixed-income products, which may also be the last straw that breaks the camel's back for US bonds. For Hong Kong stocks, the expected US rate cut was originally a bullish external factor for the stock market. However, if the US interest rates rise rapidly, Hong Kong stocks may also face pressure at some point. In other words, the pricing of assets between China and the USA influences each other, which is a phenomenon worth paying attention to. Your internal factors may be my external factors, and vice versa.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
    Write a comment