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大行评级|摩根大通:行业预测显示未来数月航运需求将有所放缓 下调东方海外目标价至166港元

Major bank rating | JPMorgan: Industry forecasts show that future shipping demand will slow down in the coming months, lowering Orient Overseas target price to HK$166.

Gelonghui Finance ·  Sep 26 01:37

JPMorgan released a research report indicating that the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) has previously stated that it has not yet been able to schedule a meeting with the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) on the new contract negotiation arrangements, which may trigger a strike on the U.S. East Coast. In addition, with the unstable situation in the Middle East, Israel has launched a new round of airstrikes against Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, leading to an escalation of conflict. As the traditional peak season comes to an end, the shipping industry may face a new round of supply chain disruptions. The bank stated that industry forecasts indicate a slowdown in demand in the coming months, but there is no expectation of a significant adjustment in freight rates in the fourth quarter. Looking ahead to 2025, the industry's supply-demand imbalance situation may improve. JPMorgan pointed out that the total supply growth based on new ship deliveries peaked between 2023 and 2024, and is expected to slow down between next year and 2026. Coupled with tightening emission standards for vessels, the growth in supply can be effectively controlled.

JPMorgan reiterates its bullish stance on the shipping industry, maintaining a "shareholding" rating for COSCO Shipping Holdings, Evergreen Marine Corp, and Orient Overseas (International) Limited. The earnings per share forecast for COSCO Shipping Holdings and Orient Overseas (International) Limited for this year has been raised by 13.2% and 35% respectively, and for next year, the forecast has been revised up by 11.8% and 7.7% respectively. The target price for Orient Overseas (International) Limited has been lowered from 175 Hong Kong dollars to 166 Hong Kong dollars.

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