麦格理分析师Marcus Garvey和Vikas Dwivedi在最新公布的报告里表示，According to the McKinsey supply and demand equilibrium forecast, the oil market will face a serious supply surplus in the next five quarters, triggering a situation similar to a 'price war', and oil prices may fall to around $50 per barrel.
After falling below $70 earlier this week, Brent crude oil has seen three consecutive trading days of increases, with market panic continuing to improve.
However, Australian investment bank Macquarie warns that the global oil market will become severely oversupplied next year, with increased supply from non-OPEC countries and sluggish demand, reducing the need for OPEC+ to relax production restrictions, and oil prices will come under significant pressure.
Macquarie analysts Marcus Garvey and Vikas Dwivedi stated in their latest report that the tight market conditions this quarter are easing, and supply-demand balance forecasts show a severe oversupply in the next five quarters.
The two analysts believe that Saudi Arabia is unlikely to seek a new 'price war' with non-OPEC oil-producing countries at the moment. However, given the prospect of severe oversupply, price declines may exceed model levels, and even if Saudi Arabia does not initiate a price war, a situation that feels like a 'price war' may occur, with oil prices hovering above $50 per barrel.
Coincidentally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly report on Thursday, stating that global oil demand growth has fallen to its lowest level since the pandemic, with significant slowdown in demand growth in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year. Even with the extension of OPEC+ production cuts, the oil market will still face oversupply in 2025. Previously, both OPEC and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) had lowered their global oil demand growth forecasts for the current and next year.
However, Macquarie also points out that factors such as geopolitical conflicts bringing supply risks and the U.S. presidential election reserve some 'upside potential' for oil prices.
Based on the above analysis, Macquarie predicts that Brent crude oil will rise to $79 per barrel this quarter and then fall back to $73 per barrel in the fourth quarter. By 2025, oil prices will further decline.
In the first quarter, it was $70, in the second quarter it was $64, in the third quarter it was $69, and in the fourth quarter it was $72.