美国劳工统计局的数据表明，通胀形势喜忧参半，并为更渐进的降息步伐奠定了基础。上月不包括能源和食品成本的核心消费者价格指数(CPI)较7月份上涨0.3%，为四个月来的最大涨幅。尽管如此，整体CPI仍连续第五个月放缓，较上年同期上涨2.5%。Blackstone bets that the Fed's measures to restrain inflation will not trigger a recession in the US.
According to Zhongtong Finance APP, Blackstone Group's Chief Financial Officer Michael Chae said that the company "holds a cautious and optimistic attitude towards a soft landing", indicating that this alternative asset management company is betting that the Fed's measures to restrain inflation will not trigger a recession in the US.
Chae stated at the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference on Wednesday: "A soft landing is difficult to achieve. This situation has been quite rare in history, but our current situation looks quite encouraging."
Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the inflation situation is mixed, laying the groundwork for a more gradual rate of decline. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding energy and food costs rose by 0.3% last month compared to July, the largest increase in four months. Nevertheless, the overall CPI continued to slow for the fifth consecutive month, rising by 2.5% compared to the same period last year.
Chae stated that Blackstone's own inflation indicators (excluding housing costs and adding other indicators) were at 1.7%. He stated that this would enable the US to achieve its "target" inflation.
Wall Street generally expects that after a series of interest rate hikes starting in March 2022, the Fed will cut interest rates. Although these expectations usually rely on CPI data and employment statistics, Blackstone also mines data from its vast investment portfolio, which spans real estate, acquisitions, and financing.
Chae stated that data collected from Blackstone Group, the world's largest alternative asset management company, indicates that the labor market has been weakening. According to a survey in June, chief executives of the investment portfolio companies of Blackstone Group expressed their expectation of a slowdown in wage growth over the next year.
Chae said that although the revenue growth of Blackstone's global investment portfolio is slowing down, these businesses demonstrate "resilient profit margins".
Chae also expressed optimism about the return of trading after a prolonged period of trading drought.
He said, "We are seeing signs of a return to animal spirits in the trading market. If these trends continue, I believe the market performance in 2025 may be particularly strong."
