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後場に注目すべき3つのポイント~米国株安や円高推移を受けて下げ幅は一時1500円超に

Three points to watch in the afternoon session ~ due to the decline in US stocks and the strengthening of the yen, the decline temporarily exceeded 1,500 yen.

Fisco Japan ·  Sep 3 23:47

I would like to pay attention to the following 3 points in the after-sale transaction on the 4th.

・The Nikkei Average continued to decline drastically, and the decline was over 1500 yen at one point in response to depreciation in US stocks and the appreciation of the yen

・The dollar and yen are reluctant to decline, and they are also being bought back because of affordability

・Tokyo Electron <8035> is the top contributor to price increases, and Advantest <6857> is in the same 2nd place

■The Nikkei Average continued to decline drastically, and the decline was over 1500 yen at one point in response to depreciation in US stocks and the appreciation of the yen

The Nikkei Average continued to drop drastically. The forward transaction was closed at 37405.59 yen (estimated volume 0.9 billion 50 million shares), which was 1280.72 yen lower (-3.31%) compared to the previous day.

The US stock market fell sharply on the 3rd. The Dow average closed at 40936.93 dollars (-1.51%), the NASDAQ depreciated 577.33 points (-3.26%) at 17136.30, and the S&P 500 closed at 5528.93, which was 119.47 points lower (-2.12%). Since the ISM manufacturing business climate index fell below expectations in August, concerns about a hard landing also intensified, and after being close, it fell. Profit-taking sales from the Dow's all-time high also accelerated, and all-day sales took precedence. Sales in the semiconductor sector such as NVIDIA also came under further pressure, and the NASDAQ also sold heavily, and the decline widened towards the end of the market.

In response to the drastic decline in US stocks and the appreciation of the yen in exchange rates, the Tokyo market began trading with a selling advantage. The Nikkei Average broke through the 38,000 yen level, and the decline widened to 37122.33 yen at one point. Since the Philadelphia Semiconductor Stock Index (SOX Index) fell more than 7% from the previous day, the decline in valuable semiconductor stocks was conspicuous. Profit determination in response to the rise from 8/5 took precedence, and the trading price on the Prime Market was 2.4 trillion yen, which was in the 2 trillion yen range for the first time in a long time.

Among stocks adopted by the Nikkei Average, the decline in semiconductor stocks such as Renesas Electronics <6723>, Socionext <6526>, Screen HD <7735>, SUMCO <3436>, Tokyo Electron <8035>, and SoftBank Group <9984> is conspicuous. Additionally, Furukawa Electric <5801>, Disco <6146>, Fujikura <5803>, TEPCO HD <9501>, Mercari <4385>, Recruit HD <6098>, etc. fell.

Meanwhile, NITORI HD <9843>, AEON <8267>, Kao <4452>, Sapporo HD <2501>, and Meiji Holdings <2269>, etc., which are among the meritorious stocks of the appreciation of the yen, have risen. In addition to this, Bandai Namco HD <7832>, ZOZO <3092>, etc. were purchased. Note, the number of stocks adopted by the Nikkei Average rose to only 15 stocks.

While all industries declined, declines in mining, petroleum and coal products, securities and commodity futures trading, nonferrous metals, and electrical equipment were conspicuous.

The Nikkei Average VI, which indicates uncertainty about the future of the market, rose to 31.84 points at one point, but compared to 70.69 points on 8/5, pessimism does not seem to have increased that much. There is also the fact that the current upper value of the Nikkei Average was getting heavier, so I think profit-taking sales took precedence. Since the trading price on the front market has swelled to 2.4 trillion yen, it seems that purchases are also included in a reasonable amount. The market is wary of a late-market decline like 8/5, but since the remaining credit buybacks as of 8/30 remain at around 4 trillion yen, there probably won't be much of a dash sale involving margin trading. The late-stage Tokyo market is expected to regain calm unless the yen appreciates one step further. I think the decline in the Nikkei Average and TOPIX will shrink slightly and reach a major close.

■The dollar and yen are reluctant to decline, and they are also being bought back because of affordability

The dollar and yen were reluctant to decline in the Tokyo market on the morning of the 4th. Dollar sales were ahead in response to a decline in US 10-year bond yields. Also, due to concerns about a slowdown in the US economy, the Nikkei Stock Average depreciation widened to 1500 yen compared to the previous day, and temporarily fell to 144 yen 89 yen due to risk-averse yen purchases. The dollar was then bought back.

The trading range up to this point is 144 yen 89 yen to 145 yen 55 sen for the dollar and yen, 160 yen 11 yen to 160 yen 89 sen for the euro and yen, and 1.1039 dollars to 1.1056 dollars for the euro dollar.

■Backstage check stocks

・4 brands, such as ZUU <4387> and Medicinova <4875>, have high stops

*Includes temporary stop height (sign value)

・Tokyo Electron <8035> is the top contributor to price increases, and Advantest <6857> is in the same 2nd place

■Economic indicators and statements from key figures

[Economic indicators]

・Australian GDP for the April-6 fiscal year: +1.0% compared to the previous year (forecast: +0.9%, January-March period: +1.3% ← +1.1%)

・Mid-August Zaixin Service Industry PMI: 51.6 (forecast: 51.8, July: 52.1)

[Remarks by VIPs]

・German Federal Reserve Bank President Nagel

“Eurozone inflation is on the right path”

<Domestic>

・Nothing in particular

<Overseas>

・Nothing in particular

Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement of any specific investment or investment strategy. Read more
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