The Zhitong Finance App learned that Minsheng Securities released a research report saying that sales resumed in July, and pig prices continued to fluctuate in a high boom range. The national average price of three-yuan pigs this week was 20.6 yuan/kg, -2.8% from week to week; the average weight of pigs released was 124.7 kg, +0.1% month-on-month. Piglet prices fluctuated at a high level; Steel Union data in July showed that fattening pig feed sales fell 8.8% year on year, indicating that the pressure on pig supply has begun to ease. The number of newborn piglets reached an inflection point in October 2023, which means that April 2024 will enter an inflection point in the number of pigs released, and the pressure on pig supply will decrease month by month; compounded by the phased effects of the epidemic last year's fall and winter, pig prices are expected to continue the upward cycle.

Pigs: Sales resumed in July, and pig prices continued to fluctuate in a high boom range. The national average price of three-yuan pigs this week was 20.6 yuan/kg, -2.8% from week to week; the average weight of pigs released was 124.7 kg, +0.1% month-on-month. The price of piglets fluctuated at a high level. This week, three-yuan piglets outside of 15 kg averaged 664 yuan/head, -0.8% compared to the previous week. Steel Union data for July showed that fattening pig feed sales fell 8.8% year on year, indicating that the pressure on pig supply has begun to ease. The number of newborn piglets reached an inflection point in October 2023, which means that April 2024 will enter an inflection point in the number of pigs released, and the pressure on pig supply will decrease month by month; compounded by the phased effects of the epidemic last year's fall and winter, pig prices are expected to continue the upward cycle. Minsheng Securities recommends Muyuan shares with lower costs than the industry, Wenshi shares with balanced and diverse businesses, and companies that continue to implement the logic of low cost and high growth rate include Superstar Farming and Animal Husbandry and Huatong Shares. It is recommended to focus on Shennong Group. Finally, I recommend Tiankang Biotech, Xinwufeng, Tang Renshen, and COFCO Jiajiakang, which have relatively healthy/well-funded balance sheets.

White chicken: Seedling prices are rising and falling, and we look forward to the next peak season. The average price of white feather chicken seedlings this week was 3.1 yuan/feather, -4.0% month-on-month; the average price of white feather broiler was 3.7 yuan/kg, -3.9% month-on-month. The price of chicken seedlings soared and fell this week, mainly due to rising temperatures and rainy weather, and the breeding side was active. However, there has been pressure on chicken prices to harvest chicken, putting some pressure on the rise in the price of chicken seedlings. The shortage of early breeding has gradually spread to the commodity generation stage, and the decline in the supply of commercial chicken is expected to drive up the price of seedlings. Combined with the seasonal recovery in downstream demand in the later stages, the price of commercial chicken seedlings will still enter an upward boom range, benefiting upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain. It is recommended to focus on Yisheng Shares, Shengnong Development, Minhe Shares, and Hefeng Shares.

Animal insurance: Wait for the boom in the industrial chain to resonate, and pay attention to the anti-plague vaccine development process. The reduction in production capacity is gradually realized, and we are waiting for the industrial chain boom to resonate. The second half of 2024 was accompanied by an accelerated decline in the number of breeding sows starting in October 2023, and the number of fattening pigs continued to decline. As a result, pig prices are expected to usher in an important reversal in the second half of 2024. The animal insurance sector has both the post-breeding industry cycle and the non-plague vaccine news window, and is expected to usher in impressive performance. The development process of the anti-plague vaccine will be an important catalyst for the animal insurance sector. We recommend companies that are expected to be the first to be approved for the anti-plague vaccine, Keqian Biotech, and Zhongmu Co., Ltd., and it is recommended to focus on Biotech Co., Ltd. and Jinhe Biotech.

Cultivation: The global supply of agricultural products was abundant in 24/25. Focus on blueberries to promote early progress. [Soybeans] US soybean production is estimated to have increased a lot, and global soybean production has declined slightly. [Corn] US corn production estimates have increased, and global stocks have increased. [Wheat] The estimated production of wheat in the US and the world has declined. Global wheat production is estimated at 0.798 billion tons, up 10.47 million tons from the previous year. Wheat production in Argentina, Australia, Canada, and India all increased. Global wheat consumption is estimated at 0.802 billion tons, up 2.03 million tons from the previous year. The final global wheat inventory is estimated at 0.254 billion tons, down 4.19 million tons year on year. Mainly due to the reduction in Russia's year-end inventory, inventory sales ratio was 31.6%, down 0.6 PCT year on year. [Blueberry] The production area is growing rapidly, and it is hoped that volume and price will rise rapidly as soon as possible. Nopsin's blueberry landscape is expanding rapidly. The company expects the production area in 2025 to be 1.5 times that of 2024, growing from 0.02 million acres to 0.03 million acres, and the yield per mu will also increase. The fourth quarter was a period when blueberry prices were high. According to Nopsin's 23/24 production season, the average sales price of blueberries reached 0.105 million yuan/ton in November, and the average profit per ton was high. This year, the company will further increase the scale of Blueberry promotion, consolidate the logic of rapid increase in volume and price, and continue to recommend Nopsin.

Risk warning: the number of pigs released was lower than expected; agricultural product prices fluctuated greatly; the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations