From the perspective of supply, the photovoltaic industry chain in the second quarter of 2024 is still in a surplus state. With the implementation of electricity price policies and the increase in the proportion of new energy entering the market, there is a possibility of a short-term decrease in electricity prices. In terms of demand, it is expected that the demand for light storage in the Asia, Africa and Latin America regions will be strong in the second half of 2024.
According to a research report released by Western Securities, the photovoltaic industry chain was still in a surplus state in the second quarter of 2024 from the perspective of supply. With the implementation of electricity price policies and the increase in the proportion of new energy entering the market, there is a possibility of a short-term decrease in electricity prices. In terms of demand, it is expected that the demand for light storage in the Asia, Africa and Latin America regions will be strong in the second half of 2024. Among them, as of June 2024, China's photovoltaic inverters and energy storage inverters continued to increase in export amount, with exports to Pakistan reaching 0.065 billion US dollars, an increase of 491% year-on-year and 2% month-on-month; exports to Saudi Arabia reached 0.038 billion US dollars, an increase of 1800% year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rate of demand in emerging market countries in overseas exports is significantly higher than that in developed market countries. Looking ahead to the second half of 2024, with the approach of the interest rate cut cycle, emerging market countries are expected to maintain a high growth rate, and related symbols are expected to benefit.
The main views of Western Securities are as follows:
The photovoltaic industry chain is still being cleared, and export demand is more certain than domestic demand. From the perspective of supply, the industry chain is still in a surplus state in the second quarter of 2024. Looking ahead, with the implementation of electricity price policies and the increase in the proportion of new energy entering the market, there is a possibility of a short-term decrease in electricity prices. It is expected that when the electricity price drops below 0.3 yuan, the IRR of light storage projects will drop below 6%. With the continuous high growth of photovoltaic export data, the certainty of photovoltaic industry export demand is higher than that of domestic demand, and the demand growth rate of emerging market countries in overseas exports is significantly higher than that of developed market countries. Looking ahead to the second half of 2024, with the approach of the interest rate cut cycle, emerging market countries are expected to maintain a high growth rate, and related symbols are expected to benefit.
There is hope for continued marginal improvement in the supply side of light storage in the second half of 2024, and demand may see a bottoming out and recovery. In terms of demand, it is expected that the demand for light storage in the Asia, Africa and Latin America regions will be strong in the second half of 2024. Among them, as of June 2024, China's photovoltaic inverters and energy storage inverters continued to increase in export amount, with exports to Pakistan reaching 0.065 billion US dollars, an increase of 491% year-on-year and 2% month-on-month; exports to Saudi Arabia reached 0.038 billion US dollars, an increase of 1800% year-on-year. It is expected that the prosperity of light storage demand at home and abroad will continue to increase in 2024. From a supply perspective, as of the second quarter of 2024, European household storage inventories have gradually cleared, and looking ahead to the second half of 2024, the demand for light storage and photo-voltaic-web-inverters may continue to grow.
In the field of photovoltaics, HJT new technology breakthroughs are the focus. The supply and demand gap in silver is expected to drive prices up for the whole year, the content of silver-encased copper-containing silver paste continues to decline, and HJT will usher in a cost inflection point. HJT has gradually introduced 0BB+30% silver-encased copper paste. With the current silver price close to 8000 yuan/kg, HJT can achieve a cost advantage of 0.04 yuan/w of silver paste compared with TopCon. With the further catalyst of silver prices, the cost gap of silver paste is expected to further widen. It is expected that the scale production breakthrough time point of HJT will be in the third quarter of 2024, and the penetration rate of new technologies is expected to rise rapidly.
Investment advice:
Main Line 1: During the process of light storage reaching the bottom and demand hitting the bottom, leading symbols with a broad overseas channel layout and a complete product lineup will be the first to benefit. The recommended symbol with valuation advantage and alpha of individual stocks is Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ).
Main Line 2: As of the second quarter of 2024, the inventory of European and American household storage on the supply side is tending to reach a bottom, and the inventory of micro inverter channels is gradually clearing. Looking ahead to the second half of 2024, the demand for replenishment is obvious. Retrieved light storage process deye shares (605117.SH), thomson energy technology (688348.SH), and recommended attention hemai shares (688032.SH).
Main Line 3: In 2024, the incremental demand for new energy in Asia, Africa and Latin America is expected to be significant, and it is recommended to benefit from the growth of photovoltaic demand in the Middle East market, follow-up the leading track bracket arctech solar holding (688408.SH).
Main Line 4: In 2024, HJT may usher in a new inflection point in quantity production, and it is recommended to benefit from symbols such as suzhou maxwell technologies (300751.SZ), leascend technology (300051.SZ) and uborn new materials (301266.SZ).
Risk Warning: Macroeconomic fluctuations, intensified market competition, and overcapacity risks.