从技术面来看，黄金价格在上周后半段的反弹显示出市场的韧性。日线图显示，相对强弱指数(RSI)在本周下半周升向60，反映黄金在低位的承托力仍比较顽强。在上行方面，2470-2480美元/盎司将成为金价第一个阻力区域，接下来是2500美元/盎司的心理水平。在下行方面，金价短期支撑位在2410-2400美元/盎司，之后是2370美元/盎司和2350美元/盎司。On Friday, August 9th, after a substantial rebound on Thursday, the gold price remained stable on Friday, closing at $2,430.92 per ounce. The overall trend is still hovering in the high stock price area of the year.
Currently, investors' confidence in the Fed's interest rate cut in September has increased, which is the main influencing factor of gold trend. Last week, Fed decision makers increasingly believed that the degree of inflation cooling was sufficient to allow for interest rate cuts. They will obtain clues about the magnitude and timing of interest rate cuts from economic data, not stock market volatility. Therefore, investors' focus will turn to this week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to understand the policy path that the Fed may take. The market expects the annual growth rate of the US July CPI to be 2.9%, slightly lower than the previous month's 3.0%. However, the monthly rate is expected to accelerate from -0.1% to 0.2%. The predicted Core CPI annual growth rate will decrease from 3.3% to 3.2%, but the monthly rate will increase from 0.1% to 0.2%. If the monthly growth rate of Core CPI exceeds expectations, investors may re-evaluate the possibility of a 50-basis-point interest rate cut in September and help the US dollar gain momentum through immediate response, thus putting pressure on gold. Conversely, if the data meets or is lower than expected, it will undoubtedly put pressure on the US dollar and open the door for another wave of gold rally. Considering the weak labor market and the potential increase in unemployment rate announced by the US at the beginning of the month, as well as the contraction of manufacturing activities, it seems that the US economy is gradually validating its slowdown. The rise in unemployment should affect expenditure and inflation data. If this week's inflation data shows a scenario of continuous decline in the inflation rate, it will give Fed decision-makers a rationale for interest rate cuts.
Source: E-huitong
From a technical point of view, the rebound in the second half of last week shows the market's resilience. The daily chart shows that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose to 60 in the second half of this week, reflecting that the support for gold at the low level is still relatively strong. In terms of upward momentum, $2470-$2480/ounce will be the first resistance area for gold, followed by the psychological level of $2500/ounce. In terms of downward momentum, short-term support for gold is at $2410-$2400/ounce, followed by $2370/ounce and $2350/ounce.
Wang Gang, Bank of China Guangdong Branch
For personal views only, not representative of the views of the organization.