The number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week fell back above expectations to 0.233 million, easing market concerns about a recession in the US economy. The confidence of investors increased, driving US stocks to open high and rise. The Nasdaq rose more than 3%, and chip stocks rose by about 7%. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose above 4%. Poor demand for US 30-year Treasury bond auctions also exacerbated the situation of selling off US bonds, and short-term yields rose by as much as 10 basis points. At the same time, European stocks flattened some of their declines in the evening, the US dollar strengthened, and crude oil, Bitcoin, and gold also rose.

However, the number of continued jobless claims refreshed the highest level in nearly three years since November 2021. JPMorgan has raised the probability of a US economic recession from 25% to 35% this year, and Goldman Sachs has already raised its forecast from 15% to 25% over the weekend, but believes that a recession can be avoided. This year, Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin said that the FOMC has time to assess whether the US economy is normalizing, and that the US may fall into a long-term shortage of workers. Trump said his intuition was stronger than Powell's and that the president should have some say in Federal Reserve policy.

US stocks rose across the board, and the S&P 500 index posted its largest single-day gain in 21 months, while the Nasdaq led the way with a 2.87% rise. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained 6.86%, and Nvidia rose 6.13%:

• US stock indexes continued to rise and closed at daily highs. The S&P 500 index rose 2.30% to 5319.31 points. The Dow rose 1.76% or 683 points to 39446.49 points. The Nasdaq rose 2.87% to 16660.02 points. The Nasdaq 100, which measures the performance of technology industry stocks in the Nasdaq 100 index, rose 3.06%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 technology industry component stocks, rose 3.78%. The Russell 2000 Index rose 2.42%. The panic index VIX fell 14.47% to 23.82.

• After reaching a daily high in the afternoon, the Nasdaq, which is dominated by technology stocks, rose more than 3%; the S&P 500 index rose nearly 2.4%; the Dow, which is closely related to the economic cycle, rose more than 744 points or 1.9%; and the Russell 2000 small-cap stock index rose more than 2.4%. The chip index rose 6.86%, and the Chinese concept index rose as much as 2.9%.

The Nasdaq led the way (the best single-day performance since February 2023), and the S&P 500 index posted its best single-day performance since November 2022.

• US industry ETFs closed higher across the board. The semiconductor ETF rose more than 6%, the global aviation industry ETF, technology industry ETF, and global technology stock ETFs each rose nearly 4%, the biotechnology index ETF and the Internet stock index ETF both rose by almost 3%, and the medical industry ETF, optional consumer ETF, energy industry ETF, bank industry ETF, regional bank ETF, and financial industry ETF all rose by around 2%.

• Eleven sectors of the S&P 500 index closed mostly higher. The information technology/technology sector rose 3.31%, the telecom sector rose 2.41%, the industrial, healthcare, optional consumer, and energy sectors rose the most, up to 2.3%, and the utility sector rose 0.15%, performing the worst.

• The "Magnificent Seven" of technology collectively rebounded. Nvidia led the way with a 6.13% rise, regaining the $100 level, Tesla rose 3.69%, Apple rose 1.66%, "metaverse" Meta rose 4.24%, Google A rose 1.94%, Amazon rose 1.86%, and Microsoft rose 1.07%.
  

The seven technology giants rebounded to yesterday's high point, but still fell this week and fell compared to last Friday's non-farm payrolls data.

• Chip stocks rose across the board. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 6.86%; the industry ETF SOXX rose 6.9%; and Nivida's double-long ETF rose 12.72%. On Semiconductor rose 8.8%, Micron Technology rose 6.07%. Taiwan Semiconductor's US stock rose 6.13%, Arm Holdings rose 10.59%, Qualcomm rose 5.66%, Broadcom rose 6.95%, KLA Corp. rose 7.82%, Applied Materials rose 6.74%, ASML Holding ADR rose 4.82%, Intel rose 7.9%, and AMD rose 5.95%.

• AI concept stocks rose collectively. "AI demon stocks" Super Micro Computer rose by 3.5%, BullFrog AI by 5.31%, Oracle by 2.43%, CrowdStrike by 4.27%, C3.ai by 6.2%, Palantir by 11.25%, SoundHound AI, an AI voice company held by Nvidia, rose and fell by 21.16%, BigBear.ai by 3.36%, Dell Technologies by 4.06%. Snowflake rose 5.65%. While Serve Robotics, an AI robot delivery company held by Nvidia, fell by 2.24%.

• China concept stocks generally rose, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 2.8%. Among ETFs, the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) rose 2.79%, and the Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ) rose 2.29%. Among popular China concept stocks, New Oriental rose 0.26%, Netease rose 2.15%, Tencent Holdings (ADR) rose 3.44%, PDD Holdings rose 3.66%, Alibaba rose 3.19%, JD.com rose 2.57%, Baidu rose 5.52%, Kuaishou rose 0.86%, Xiaopeng rose 3.51%, Nio Inc rose 4.09%, Ideal rose 2.6%, while Bilibili fell 2.54%.

• Gold and silver mining stocks generally rose. Coeur Mining rose 5.08%, Harmony Gold Mining, Hecla Mining, and ASM rose up to 4.31%, Barrick Gold rose more than 3.1%, the gold mining stock ETF GDX rose more than 2.4%, and the gold miner factor index ETF rose 2%.

• Cryptocurrency and blockchain concept stocks rose collectively. The ProShares Ultra Bitcoin ETF rose more than 17%, Bitfarms rose 22.02%, Stronghold rose more than 19.9%, Bit Digital rose more than 18.4%, the ProShares Ultra Bitcoin ETF rose more than 17.2%, Canaan ADR rose about 9.7%, the Ethereum ETF QETH rose more than 9.6%, and "Bitcoin holding guru" MicroStrategy rose about 9.1%, while the Bitcoin Strategy ETF rose about 9.0%

• Among other stocks that experienced significant changes due to financial reports: (1) Eli Lilly and Co. rose more than 13% during the trading day and continued to rise more than 9%, leading a group of weight-loss drug concept stocks. Viking Therapeutics rose nearly 10%, Novo Nordisk ADR rose nearly 8%, and Shockwave Medical ADR narrowed its gains to just over 1%. Eli Lilly's second-quarter revenue and operating profit have both exceeded expectations, due to strong sales of its weight-loss drug, raising its full-year revenue guidance to $3 billion. (2) Novavax, which fell more than 17% at the opening before rebounding 9%, despite disappointing second-quarter results. (3) Athletic apparel retailer Under Armour rose 19%, achieving its largest single-day gain since 2018, with earnings per share and revenue in the second quarter exceeding expectations. (4) SoundHound, an AI concept stock held by Nvidia, rose nearly 12% before turning negative, with second-quarter adjusted EBITDA losses worse than expected. (5) In media stocks, ViacomCBS will cut 15% of its workforce in the United States and rose more than 5% after hours. Warner Bros. Discovery once fell nearly 13%, writing down $9.1 billion in TV network-related assets, and second-quarter revenue being lower than expected.

• In terms of news, Amazon's $4 billion investment in Anthropic is facing antitrust scrutiny in the UK. Apple plans to launch the smallest desktop computer Mac Mini in history this year and upgrade it to the M4 self-developed chip to support AI functions. Palantir, an AI concept stock, rose more than 11% and will cooperate with Microsoft to sell AI functions to US defense and intelligence agencies. Microsoft rose 1%. Delta Air Lines expects software system malfunctions to cause $380 million in direct losses to the company in the third quarter, and the company will sue CrowdStrike and Microsoft for this.

Boosted by US job data, European stocks rose slightly at the end of the day, with mixed gains and losses:

• The Stoxx 600 fell slightly at the beginning of the day, mostly down throughout the day, with gains and losses in various sectors, with media and chemical stocks down 0.6%, and tourism stocks up 1.28%. Boosted by US job data, European stocks rose slightly at the end of the day, closing up 0.08%.

• Major regional stock indices rose and fell, with the French stock index down 0.26%, the British stock index down 0.27%, the Spanish stock index down 0.39%, the Italian stock index down 0.28%, while the German stock index rose 0.37%.

• Among other stocks that experienced significant changes due to financial reports: Siemens, the German industrial giant, reported better-than-expected quarterly operating profit, and the Siemens European stock rose 2.09%.

After the initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly declined last week, the panic surrounding the US labor market and economic recession eased and the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond, which is closely related to the economic trend, rose above the 4% mark. Poor demand for 30-year US Treasury auctions led to increased selling during mid-day trading in US stocks, and Treasury yields hit daily highs.

• US Treasury: The highest yield on 10-year US base bonds rose nearly 6 basis points to 4.023%, rising for three consecutive days and returning to last Thursday's level. Yesterday, it recovered from the decline since Friday's poor non-farm payroll employment data. The highest yield on 30-year long-term bonds rose 5 basis points to 4.31%. The US short-term bond yields at two and three years rose by as much as 10 basis points. The yield on the two-year US Treasury bonds rose 7.59 basis points to 4.0380% at the close, trading in the range of 3.9126%-4.0794% during the day.

• Goldman Sachs' interest rate strategist said that in the absence of "widespread evidence that labor markets or market functions are deteriorating rapidly," US bond yields may be too low. Under more favorable outcomes, the yield curve of US bonds may shift higher than current levels. News-wise, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway holds more ultra-short-term US bonds than the Fed.

• European Bonds: The closing yield on the 10-year German bond, the benchmark for the euro zone, fell slightly, and the yield, which had risen significantly after the release of US initial jobless claims, fell for most of the day, while the two-year yield fell more than 1 basis points. The yield on 10-year UK bonds rose by about 3 basis points. France 10-year treasury notes yield rose 0.3 basis points, Italy 10-year treasury notes yield fell 0.6 basis points, Spain 10-year treasury notes yield rose 0.2 basis points, and Greece 10-year treasury notes yield rose 0.3 basis points.

US Treasury yields soared again and have returned above the level before last Friday's job data announcement (except for the two-year Treasury bond yields).

The Japanese yen has fallen for three consecutive days, which helps to suppress the volatility caused by arbitrage trading, and has pushed the US dollar index to its highest level early in US stocks, recovering from the decline since last Friday. Bitcoin has surged more than 10%, breaking through the $60,000 and $61,000 thresholds in succession.

• USD: The basket of currencies measured by the US dollar index DXY rose by 0.02%, to 103.218 points, with a daily trading range of 102.916-103.546 points. After the release of the weekly jobless claims survey report at 20:30 Beijing time, it rose significantly and rose by a maximum of 0.3% during the day. Bloomberg's US dollar index fell by 0.19%, to 1248.18 points, with a daily trading range of 1252.52-1247.29 points.

• Most non-US currencies fell. The euro against the US dollar fell by 0.05%. After the US employment weekly report was released, it showed a V-shaped trend. The British pound against the US dollar rose by 0.41% and maintained its upward trend since the release of the US employment weekly report. The US dollar against the Swiss franc rose by 0.53% and maintained its rise since the release of the US employment weekly report.

Bloomberg's US dollar index finally fell slightly, and the ICE US dollar index narrowed its gains significantly at the end of the trading day.

• The yen fell 0.6% against the US dollar to 147.53, breaking through the 147 mark, with a daily trading range of 145.44-147.54 yen. The euro against the yen rose 0.33% to 160.75 yen; the British pound against the yen rose 0.78% to 187.637 yen.

• In terms of investment research strategies, Barclays predicts that the yen will regain its safe-haven properties after rebounding. The recent sharp rise in the yen's exchange rate shows that its trend is synchronous with the yield gap. If global growth concerns lead to a decline in stocks, the yen will be boosted by its safe-haven asset status.

• Offshore RMB: Offshore RMB (CNH) fell 109 points against the US dollar to 7.1842 yuan, falling for three consecutive days and falling below 7.18 yuan. The overall trading range during the day was 7.1544-7.1852 yuan.

• Cryptocurrencies rose sharply throughout the day and expanded their gains after US stock market closed. The largest market-cap Bitcoin rose by more than 10% and broke through the $60,000 and $61,000 thresholds, recovering from the decline since last Saturday. The second-largest Ethereum rose by 13% and exceeded $2,600.

Bitcoin rose sharply on Thursday, hitting $60,000 and recovering from the decline since last Saturday.

Due to the lower-than-expected US initial jobless claims data, the worry about US recession eased, and the tension in the Middle East intensified. The oil price has risen for the third day and closed up by more than 1%, further breaking away from the low point of more than half a year.

• US Oil: WTI crude oil futures for September rose from yesterday's $75.23 per barrel to $76.19 per barrel, an increase of nearly 1.28% or $0.96. Intraday European stocks fell by more than 0.8% to $74.60 per barrel, and then US oil prices continued to rise, with the highest increase of more than 1.7% after mid-day US stocks, surpassing $76.5 per barrel.
  

• Brent oil: October Brent crude oil futures rose from yesterday's $78.33 per barrel to $79.16 per barrel, an increase of nearly 1.06% or $0.83. Brent oil follows a similar trend to US oil, falling by nearly 0.9% during the European stocks and falling below $78 per barrel, and then rising by more than 1.3% after mid-day US stocks, surpassing the $79 per barrel integer mark.

• According to Citigroup's investment strategy, Brent crude oil prices may rise to the mid-$80s, partially due to geopolitical risk in North Africa and the Middle East. Other bullish factors include supply and demand tightness until the end of August, potential hurricane-related disruptions, among others. If oil prices return to $80, it should be sold while the momentum is still high.

• Natural gas: U.S. September natural gas futures closed up 0.71% at $2.1270/million British thermal units. European natural gas prices surged, with the European benchmark TTF Dutch natural gas futures rising 4.28% to €40.200/megawatt hour. ICE UK natural gas futures rose 4.43% to 98.640 pence/kcal.

Due to renewed tensions in the Middle East, oil prices continued to rebound on Thursday, erasing all the declines from last Friday's non-farm payroll data.

Safe-haven demand and Fed rate cut bets drove gold up over 1% and stopped the decline of 5 consecutive days:

• Gold: COMEX December gold futures rose 1.43% to $2,467.20/ounce at the close. Spot gold hit a daily low and fell slightly by 0.08% in the Asian session, and then continued to rise. After the midday break, it hit a daily high, rising over 1.8% and breaking through the $2,420 mark.
  

• Silver: COMEX September silver futures closed up 2.45% at $27.605/ounce. Spot silver fell nearly 0.58% at the beginning of the Asian session, and then continued to rise. During the early U.S. session, it hit a daily high, rising over 3.7% and approaching $28.

• Most London metals rose. The "Dr. Copper" economic barometer rose $25 from a five-month low to $8,794/ton. London zinc rose $64, up nearly 2.48%. London tin rose $503, up about 1.68%. But nickel fell $153, down about 0.94%, and aluminum fell $14. Lead fell $2. However, Goldman Sachs said that Asian copper inventories have soared to their highest level since mid-2018, and copper prices will continue to decline.

Gold prices returned to above $2,400

Updated on August 8th at 11:00PM.

On Thursday, August 8, initial data eased investor concerns about a too-fast cooling of the labor market. Risk appetite rebounded, and major US stock indexes rose more than 1% collectively:

• Most major U.S. stock indexes rose. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose by more than 2.3%; the S&P 500 index rose over 1.9%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is closely related to the economic cycle, rose more than 570 points or 1.4% at one point; and the Russell 2000 small-cap stock index rose more than 1.7% at one point.

• At the beginning of the U.S. stock market, most industry ETFs rose. The semiconductor ETF rose nearly 3%, the Global Tech ETF and industry ETFs rose nearly 2%.

• In terms of industry sectors, the S&P healthcare sector rose more than 2%, industrial, technology, energy, finance, telecommunications, optional consumer goods, raw materials and other sectors rose more than 1%, while the real estate and utility sectors were up 0.27% and currently "performing the worst".

• The "Tech Seven Sisters" rebounded collectively. Nvidia fell more than 1% early on before rising over 3.8% and returning to the $100 mark; "Metaverse" Meta rose over 3% at one point, Amazon rose over 1.5% at one point, Google A rose over 2.5% at one point, Apple rose over 1.5% at one point, Microsoft rose more than 1.8% at one point, and Tesla rose more than 3.1% at one point.

• Chip stocks rebounded strongly. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the SOXX industry ETF both rose more than 4.7% at one point, and Nvidia's double-long ETF rose more than 8.2%. TSMC's US stock rose more than 4.6%; Micron Technology rose more than 5.3%.

• Most AI concept stocks rose. SoundHound AI, an AI voice company held by Nvidia, rose more than 17.1% at one point, CrowdStrike rose more than 3.1% at one point, Dell rose more than 3.5%, while Serve Robotics, an AI robot delivery company held by Nvidia, fell more than 4.3%. "AI demon stock" Super Micro Computer fell more than 2.7% at one point, but is now slightly rising.

• Most Chinese concept stocks rose. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rose more than 1.8% at one point. Among the popular Chinese concept stocks, New Oriental rose more than 1% before falling more than 1.7%, Bilibili fell more than 3.7% at one point, while PDD Holdings and Baidu rose more than 3.7%, Tencent (ADR) rose more than 3.4%, and Alibaba and JD.com both rose more than 2.5%.

• Among other stocks that have changed significantly due to financial reports, Eli Lilly and Co. rose more than 13% in early trading, but halved the gains, with second-quarter revenue and profit both far exceeding expectations and raising full-year performance guidance. Novavax fell more than 16% early on, but has now erased all the losses and turned positive as second-quarter performance fell short of expectations. Robinhood rose more than 5.5% before falling more than 2.3%, with second-quarter revenue exceeding expectations.

[Update before 21:50]

Global markets are still in the doldrums, with Asian stocks fluctuating on Thursday, European stocks continuing to decline, and US stocks rising. Uncertainty about the global economy, especially the United States, and the mysterious operations of the Bank of Japan have heightened investor concerns.

According to the summary of the opinions of the members of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting released this morning, some officials still tend to continue raising interest rates. One member said that the nominal interest rate of 0.25% is still very easy; another member said that 'a slight increase in interest rates would not have a tightening effect'.

The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 3 was lower than expected and the previous value, indicating that the US economy may still have resilience.

• The Japanese stock market opened lower, rebounded during the day and then fell again. The Nikkei 225 index closed down 0.7% at 34,831.15 points. The TOPIX index in Japan closed down 1.1%.

• The US dollar briefly rose above 147 against the yen, up 0.18% on the day.

• The comprehensive stock price index in South Korea closed down 0.5%, with SK hynix falling 3.48%.

• The Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Stock Price Index of China fell 1.3% to 21026.67 points. Taiwan Semiconductor fell 2.0%.

• U.S. 10-year Treasury notes yield has risen back above 4%.

• Major European stock indices fell, with the STOXX Europe 600 index down nearly 1%.

• At the beginning of US stock trading, the three major stock indexes opened collectively higher, with the Nasdaq up more than 1%.

[Update at 21:30]

At the beginning of US stock trading, the three major stock indexes opened higher, with the Nasdaq up 1.31%, the S&P 500 up 0.99%, and the Dow Jones up 0.45%.

Eli Lilly and Co. rose more than 13% in early trading, with second-quarter revenue and profit both far exceeding expectations, and raised full-year performance guidance.

Most of the star tech stocks rebounded, with Nvidia up more than 2%, AMD up more than 2%, and Microsoft up more than 1%.

[Update at 21:00]

US bonds continued to fall, with the yield on 10-year Treasury notes in the United States returning to above 4%.

[Update at 20:30]

After the first application data in the United States was released, the short-term futures of the three major stock indexes rose, with Nasdaq futures up 1.01%, S&P 500 index futures up 0.78%, and Dow Jones index futures up 0.38%;

Short-term yields on US government bonds rose, with the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds up more than 2 basis points on the day to 3.970%.

The US dollar once rose above 147 against the Japanese yen, up 0.18% intraday.

Updated at 17:30

Major European indexes fell, with the Stoxx 600, France's CAC 40, the UK's FTSE 100, and Italy's FTSE MIB all down more than 1%, while Germany's DAX index was down 0.6%.

US equity index futures were slightly lower, with Dow Jones futures down 0.2%, S&P 500 futures down 0.1%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.06%.

Updated at 15:00

The Nikkei 225 index closed down 0.7%, at 34,831.15 points. The Japan TOPIX index closed down 1.1%.

South Korea's composite stock price index closed down 0.5%, with SK Hynix down 3.48%.

Major European indexes opened slightly lower, with the Stoxx 50 down 0.58%, Germany's DAX down 0.4%, France's CAC 40 down 0.01%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.73%.

Content as of 12:00 below

The Nikkei 225 index closed up 0.2%, after falling 2.5% earlier. The TOPIX index also closed up 0.2%, after falling 1.8% earlier.

The yen gave back its previous 0.9% gain, with the US dollar falling 0.1% against the yen to 146.56.

South Korea's composite stock price index fell slightly by 0.72%, with SK Hynix falling 4.8%.

The Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index fell 1.3% to 21,026.67 points, with Taiwan Semiconductor down 2.0%.

The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index both narrowed their losses to less than 1%.