技术层面，黄金日线探高回落，最高反弹2406.80一线承压，尾盘回测至2380一线收在低位，日线仍处于高位拉锯震荡当中，短期震荡偏弱。目前要留意颈线2352美元的争夺，破位会加深调整空间。若能持稳该水平之上，再配合有利的消息，预料黄金仍可能继续冲高。On Wednesday, August 7th, spot gold closed at $2,381.59, rising 0.7% to $2,406.80 in early trading. The rise in US Treasury yields continued on the overnight and has seen its largest increase since early June, providing support for the US dollar. This has forced gold into a high range and appears to be in a tug of war.
Recently, there has been a scarcity of US economic data, and the market needs to seek confirmation of economic slowdown, particularly in employment, from Thursday's unemployment claims report. Last week's weak employment report raised concerns about an economic recession and ignited market expectations of a Fed rate cut. If subsequent economic data shows that concerns about economic recession are reasonable, it will not only raise expectations of a rate cut, but also increase speculation about rate cut magnitude. If the market develops such an atmosphere, it will undoubtedly be conducive to further rise of gold. Regarding whether the economy will fall into a recession, Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist, recently stated in an interview that the current economic situation may be worse than the 2008 financial crisis. He spoke of volatility in the US stock market, predicting significant risks for increased future volatility of the market. In addition, he expressed serious concern about a potential global economic recession, citing the common economic challenges faced by several major economies, which intensify market turbulence. The wider commodity markets also reflect these concerns. For example, due to supply and demand dynamics, oil prices have been unstable. Recently, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell below $70 per barrel, reflecting concerns about global demand as economic growth in major economies, such as Germany, has slowed. The Bloomberg Commodity Index has also significantly declined, indicating deflationary pressure on various commodity categories. In this volatile environment, McGlone emphasizes the importance of shifting investment strategies to safe-haven assets. He advises that, in the current environment, reducing risk assets and increasing safe-haven assets such as gold and long-term US bonds is a prudent practice. Especially for gold, it is an asset with flexibility.
Source: E-huitong
From a technical perspective, daily gold rebounded after probing with resistance at $2,406.80, but the pullback had pushed the closing price down to $2,380 in the final stage of trading. Daily gold is still in a high position with a tug of war, and short-term fluctuations are weak. Attention should be paid to the battle for the $2,352 support level. If it can sustain above this level and be accompanied by favorable news, it is expected that gold will continue to rise.
Wang Gang, Bank of China Guangdong Branch
For personal views only, not representative of the views of the organization.