Zhifubao Finance App learned that Guolian Securities issued a research report stating that in the short term, Guangdong/Jiangsu offshore wind projects are expected to steadily advance in construction and approval, and industry demand is expected to further improve on a month-on-month basis. In the medium and long term, offshore wind has great potential to go abroad, and domestic high-quality companies are expected to benefit from the tightening supply and demand of offshore wind overseas. Pipe and cable links are the core beneficiaries of the realization of domestic provincial offshore wind demand and the acceleration of going abroad. It is recommended to focus on leading enterprises in pipe piles and going abroad, Dajin Heavy Industry (002487.SZ); and cable industry leaders that benefit from the recovery of domestic offshore wind demand, the acceleration of going abroad, and technology capabilities Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables (603606.SH), Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology (600522.SH).

Guolian Securities' main points are as follows:

Demand continues to improve, ushering in a new stage of the cycle.

Wind power demand is strongly affected by policy planning on the demand side, and investment heat on the supply side has been relatively low in the past few years. The core problem of wind power lies on the demand side. This year's offshore wind investment is divided into three stages: 1) the realization of provincial offshore wind demand in China; 2) the acceleration of domestic enterprise going abroad process; 3) the landing of deep-sea planning, which solves the phased and medium- and long-term wind power demand problems.

Domestic offshore wind power catalyzes savings, and the degree of prosperity is expected to continue to increase.

Recently, the approval progress of key offshore wind power projects in Jiangsu and Guangdong has steadily advanced, and stock projects are expected to start construction in the second half of 2024; and domestic offshore wind bidding continues to rebound, with a bidding scale of 4.5GW in Q2 2024, which is significantly better month on month. Against the background of the restart of stock project construction and the continuous rebound of bidding, the certainty of domestic offshore wind power installation demand in 2024-2025 has been enhanced. Guolian Securities predicts that the domestic newly installed offshore wind power will reach 10/15GW in the next two years, corresponding to a CAGR of 50% in 2023-2025.

Overseas offshore wind power construction is expected to accelerate. According to GWEC's estimation, the CAGR of new wind power installations in overseas regions from 2023 to 2028 is 18%; offshore wind power has a more significant growth rate, and the CAGR of new offshore wind power installations in overseas regions from 2023 to 2028 reaches up to 42%. It focuses on the mid- to long-term development space of offshore winds in Europe. According to WindEurope's estimation, the total newly added offshore wind power installation in Europe will reach 94GW from 2024 to 2030, with an average annual increase of offshore wind power installation of 13GW, corresponding to a CAGR of 35% from 2023 to 2028.

Local wind power production capacity or shortage in overseas areas, leading exporters are expected to benefit.

Basic links, according to Rystad Energy data, European local tower and pile capacity in 2022 are 2.1 million tons and 1.1 million tons respectively. It is expected that European tower and pile demand will exceed their local production capacity in 2026 and 2027 respectively. Leading domestic pile company Dajin Heavy Industry has realized scale exports to Europe. In the cable link, according to sounergie and Rystad Energy data, the length of overseas cable laying will be 9.5 times that of 2020 in 2028. The length of European array cables and transmission cables in 2030 will be 6.8 and 14.3 times that of 2022 respectively. Leading European companies have full orders, and new production capacity will generally be completed after 2026. Domestic cable industry leaders have obtained breakthroughs in overseas orders and are expected to benefit from overflow orders.

Risk Warning: The construction progress of domestic and overseas offshore wind power is lower than expected, the capacity expansion progress is lower than expected, and the construction policy of overseas offshore wind power is lower than expected.