Calculating The Fair Value Of Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:000895)

Simply Wall St ·  Jul 12 18:11

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Henan Shuanghui Investment & DevelopmentLtd fair value estimate is CN¥20.54
• Henan Shuanghui Investment & DevelopmentLtd's CN¥23.67 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
• The CN¥28.60 analyst price target for 000895 is 39% more than our estimate of fair value

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:000895) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Step By Step Through The Calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) CN¥5.36b CN¥4.55b CN¥4.11b CN¥3.86b CN¥3.74b CN¥3.68b CN¥3.68b CN¥3.71b CN¥3.76b CN¥3.83b Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ -9.72% Est @ -5.93% Est @ -3.28% Est @ -1.43% Est @ -0.13% Est @ 0.78% Est @ 1.42% Est @ 1.86% Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 7.4% CN¥5.0k CN¥3.9k CN¥3.3k CN¥2.9k CN¥2.6k CN¥2.4k CN¥2.2k CN¥2.1k CN¥2.0k CN¥1.9k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥28b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.4%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥3.8b× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (7.4%– 2.9%) = CN¥87b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥87b÷ ( 1 + 7.4%)10= CN¥43b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥71b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of CN¥23.7, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Henan Shuanghui Investment & DevelopmentLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Henan Shuanghui Investment & DevelopmentLtd

Strength
• Debt is not viewed as a risk.
• Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
• Dividend information for 000895.
Weakness
• Earnings declined over the past year.
Opportunity
• Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
• Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio.
Threat
• Dividends are not covered by earnings and cashflows.
• Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Chinese market.
• See 000895's dividend history.

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Henan Shuanghui Investment & DevelopmentLtd, there are three relevant factors you should explore:

1. Risks: Be aware that Henan Shuanghui Investment & DevelopmentLtd is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
2. Future Earnings: How does 000895's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SZSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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