Thanks to the new energy autos achieving a record high in delivery, the production, sales and installation volume of power batteries also hit a new high in June this year in all dimensions.

With the utilization rate of major power battery manufacturers returning to high levels in June, the level is expected to maintain a growth trend in the second half of the year, making preparations for the peak season of the auto market.

In June this year, the production of domestic power batteries reached 84.5 GWh, an increase of 2.2% month-on-month and 28.7% year-on-year; sales reached 92.2 GWh, an increase of 51.2% year-on-year and 18.4% month-on-month; installation reached 42.8 GWh, an increase of 30.2% year-on-year and 7.3% month-on-month.

Among them, in the new type of battery, the installed capacity of semi-solid state batteries reached 0.53 GWh, an increase of 10.4% month-on-month, which is still higher than the overall growth rate of liquid lithium-ion batteries. The total installed capacity ratio continued to increase to 1.2%. However, the installed capacity of sodium-ion batteries has almost dropped to zero, and the terminal demand has decreased significantly, completely losing the hot performance of the previous high price of lithium carbonate.

1. In the first half of the year, the performance of semi-solid state batteries and sodium-ion batteries was completely different

In the first half of this year, lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for nearly 70% of the market share, marking the formal establishment of its 7:3 market pattern with ternary lithium batteries.

The production, sales, and installation of lithium iron phosphate batteries reached 302.1 GWh, 200.1 GWh, and 141 GWh, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 41.3%, 32.4%, and 35.7%, and the proportion reached 70.2%, 62.9%, and 69.3%, respectively.

The production, sales, and installation of ternary lithium batteries were 126.9 GWh, 117.1 GWh, and 62.3 GWh, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%, 17.5%, and 29.7%, and the proportion reached 29.5%, 36.8%, and 30.6%, respectively.

In the new power battery, semi-solid state batteries have officially started to be scaled for use in vehicles. Popular models such as Zhiji L6, Lantu Zouguang, Changan Xingjue R car series, and NIO ET7 all use semi-solid state batteries. During the first half of the year, the installed capacity of semi-solid state batteries reached 2.2 GWh, accounting for 1.6% of the total installed capacity of power batteries.

Although the main supporting battery manufacturers are still only a company called Welan New Energy, other semi-solid state battery manufacturers such as Qingtao Energy and Huien Energy Technology will join one after another in the second half of the year, which is bound to continue to drive the growth of semi-solid state battery installed capacity.

However, it is worth noting that the performance of sodium-ion batteries in terms of installation capacity is quite poor. Although there are many supporting battery manufacturers, including Contemporary Amperex Technology, Zhongke Haina, and Farasis Energy (Ganzhou) Co., Ltd., the installed capacity in the first half of this year was only 1.5 MWh, which is in sharp contrast to the semi-solid state batteries that have already entered the GWh scale.

Due to the rapid drop in the price of lithium carbonate in the past year, sodium-ion batteries have lost their biggest cost advantage, and the interest of end-car companies in them has obviously weakened. Only a few A00-level models such as Jiangling Motors Corp's Yusheng episode and Chery Automobile's QQ ice cream will use sodium-ion batteries in the first half of this year, and the overall demand is not significant. With the first days of July, the price of lithium carbonate fell below 0.09 million yuan/ton for the first time, and the cost-effectiveness of sodium-ion batteries may face further impacts.

2. There is almost no change in the ranking of leading and second-tier manufacturers, and there are considerable changes in the ranking of third-tier manufacturers

In the second quarter of this year, the utilization rate of upstream manufacturers in the lithium battery industry maintained a month-on-month growth trend and reached its peak in June. With the arrival of the peak season for the sales of new energy vehicles in the terminal market such as the "Golden September, Silver October, Copper November" season, the order volume and production capacity in the third quarter are expected to be raised to a new level.

Specifically, in June this year, the utilization rate of power battery-leading manufacturers such as Contemporary Amperex Technology has rebounded to around 84%, and the utilization rate of second-tier manufacturers such as Guoxuan Hi-Tech and EVE Energy Co., Ltd. has also increased to 60%-80%. The utilization rate of the four major lithium battery material manufacturers has also increased to the range of 60%-90%. Among them, the utilization rate of the leading positive material manufacturer, Hunan Yunteng, and the negative material manufacturer, BTR, is as high as 96%.

Not only the top manufacturers, but also the tail-end power battery manufacturers have a chance to breathe. In the first half of this year, a total of 50 power battery companies in China's new energy vehicle market achieved battery installation and matching, an increase of 2 from the same period last year.

As for the leading power battery manufacturers in terms of installed capacity, there have been few changes in the rankings of top-tier and second-tier power battery manufacturers (top ten) in the first half of this year, while there have been some changes among those ranked 10-15.

In the first half of this year, due to the low-priced lithium iron phosphate batteries of Padre and Extreme New Energy, which drove their own installation volume growth, they entered the list for the first time and ranked 14th and 11th respectively. Meanwhile, last year's players on the list, Jetway Power and Tianjin Lishen, either had to stop or temporarily reduce production due to the continued pressure of the power battery price war and ultimately fell out of the competition.

3. Chinese power battery manufacturers collectively accelerate the development of overseas markets.

Apart from the Chinese market, from the perspective of overseas markets alone, Chinese power battery manufacturers have performed quite well in the first half of this year.

In the first half of this year, China's power battery exports reached as high as 60GWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%. Among them, ternary lithium batteries still occupy the dominant position, with an installed capacity of 35.6GWh, but the growth rate has turned negative at -9.3%.

Compared to the same period last year, overseas markets were basically dominated by Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (with a 27.3% share of the overseas market, while other Chinese power battery manufacturers accounted for a total share of 4.8% of the overseas market), and this year other Chinese power battery manufacturers have made significant progress in overseas expansion, with their overseas installations showing triple-digit growth.

It is worth noting that the major Chinese power battery manufacturers that have achieved breakthroughs in overseas installations have their own reasons, each with their own expertise.

For example, BYD has continuously expanded the scale and scope of its new energy vehicle exports this year, with a total export volume of 0.1764 million vehicles in the first five months, an increase of 176.7% year-on-year. By increasing the sales of new energy vehicle products in countries such as Brazil, Thailand, Israel, and Australia, the Farasis battery brand has seen a continued rise in its overseas installation capacity.

Farasis Energy has shifted its focus to the overseas market (with a domestic market share dropping from 1.23% to 0.87%, falling out of the top ten). Its battery factory in Turkey has been fully localized and is now officially providing sufficient quantities of battery products to many European automotive clients such as Mercedes, while also avoiding some overseas high tariffs and policy impacts.

In the end, not only did CATL surpass LG Chem with a market share of 26.9% to take the overseas installation volume champion's throne, but other battery manufacturers such as BYD, Farasis Energy, Zhongchuan New Energy, and Sunwoda also entered the top ten list, with a total overseas market share of 8.9%, a full 4.1 percentage points higher than before.

In summary, in the first half of this year, the semi-solid-state battery that emerged and the almost-out-of-the-competition sodium-ion battery proved that not all new types of batteries with bright spots will succeed; at the same time, under the relatively stable domestic market structure, second-tier power battery manufacturers followed CATL to join the overseas army, which is indeed a good way to seek new growth points.