Mach Natural Resources LP's (NYSE:MNR) recent weak earnings report didn't cause a big stock movement. We think that investors are worried about some weaknesses underlying the earnings.

Examining Cashflow Against Mach Natural Resources' Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

Mach Natural Resources has an accrual ratio of 0.45 for the year to March 2024. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. Even though it reported a profit of US$18.5m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through US$552m in the last year. It's worth noting that Mach Natural Resources generated positive FCF of US$233m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Mach Natural Resources' Profit Performance

As we have made quite clear, we're a bit worried that Mach Natural Resources didn't back up the last year's profit with free cashflow. For this reason, we think that Mach Natural Resources' statutory profits may be a bad guide to its underlying earnings power, and might give investors an overly positive impression of the company. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Mach Natural Resources you should be mindful of and 2 of these shouldn't be ignored.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Mach Natural Resources' profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.