Cryptocurrency research firm 10x Research raised the chances of the SEC greenlighting the Ethereum (CRYTO: ETH) spot ETF later today to 90%.
What Happened: In its latest newsletter, 10x Research deemed the approval a "formality". It noted that an X post by SEC Chair Gary Gensler cautioning investors of potential risks–similar to the one before the approval of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) ETFs in January–could come around 9 a.m. EDT. This is typically a sign of the approval being immediate.
90%+ Probability An #Ethereum ETF Approval Today, Sell The News? pic.twitter.com/aMQ1JpaIqX
— 10x Research (@10x_Research) May 23, 2024
The analytics platform highlighted that the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (OTC:ETHE) has narrowed its discount to its net asset value (NAV) to 8% from 30% a week ago.
"An 8% discount implies at least a 90% probability that an ETF would be approved," the firm pointed out.
The research firm also foresaw the approval becoming a "sell the news" event. These fears aligned with the moves of Ethereum co-founder Jeffrey Wilcke who transferred nearly 10,000 ETH to cryptocurrency exchange Kraken.
#Ethereum co-founder Jeffrey Wilcke (@jeffehh) deposited 10,000 $ETH ($37.38M) to #Kraken at $3,738 ~2hrs ago.
— Spot On Chain (@spotonchain) May 23, 2024
Since the start of 2024, he has deposited 24,300 $ETH to Kraken at ~$3,108 ($75.52M), with the last deposit done before the price started to soar!
Currently, Jeffrey... pic.twitter.com/sERRId8yfj
Why It Matters: The mood in the cryptocurrency market was upbeat as VanEck's spot Ether ETF was listed by the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC) — a necessary precursor to SEC approval. Note that the final decision on VanEck's application is expected to come from the SEC later today.
Alongside, a slew of other ETF hopefuls, including BlackRock Inc. (NYSE:BLK) amended their 19b-4 filings for spot Ether ETFs.
Meanwhile, the chances of approval on decentralized prediction market Polymarket jumped to 67%
Price Action: At the time of writing, Ether was exchanging hands at $3,785.04, following marginal gains of 0.83% in the last 24 hours, according to data from Benzinga Pro.