Bank of America Securities released a research report saying that Xiaopeng Automobile-W (09868) had an adjusted net loss of 1.41 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, better than the bank's expected loss of 2 billion yuan. Taking into account the Group's strong product line in the second half of the year and reaffirming the “buy” rating, the target price was reduced by 6% from HK$52.7 to HK$49.5.
According to the report, Xiaopeng's overall gross margin for the first quarter increased 11.2 percentage points year on year and 6.7 percentage points quarterly to 12.9%, better than the bank's forecast of 9.4%, mainly because Xiaopeng began confirming technical service revenue from the G9 model in cooperation with Volkswagen, which led to a gross margin of 54%, which was higher than the bank's forecast of 35%. However, the vehicle's profit margin was only 5.5%, lower than the expected 6%, due to loss of inventory provisions and procurement commitments related to P5.
The bank also said that in the second quarter of this year, management expects car deliveries to increase by 25%-38% to 29,000 to 32,000 vehicles in the second quarter of this year, and revenue will increase 48%-64% year over year to 7.5 billion to 8.3 billion yuan, which is basically in line with previous forecasts. The report lowered Xiaopeng's 2024-2026 sales volume forecast by 13%/16%/15%, respectively, but lowered the adjusted net loss forecast by 21%/58%/58% to reflect a brighter gross margin outlook.