US monthly core CPI to slow to a 0.3% pace

Analysts at TD Securities preview the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales data from the US.

Retail sales to rise for a third consecutive month in April

"We expect next week's CPI report to show that core inflation slowed to a "soft" 0.3% m/m pace after posting a third consecutive strong gain at 0.4% in March. The headline likely rose by a softer 0.3% m/m despite another notable gain in energy prices. Note that our unrounded core CPI forecast at 0.27% m/m suggests larger risks for a dovish surprise to a rounded 0.2% increase."

"We look for retail sales to rise for a third consecutive month in April, opening the second quarter on a firm footing. Volatile auto and gasoline stations sales will likely provide a big boost to growth, with the control group also helping to juice the headline—though down vs March. We also project sales in bars/restaurants—the report's only services component—to remain firm."

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