China Union Holdings Ltd. (SZSE:000036) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 15% in the last month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been less than pleasing. After all, the share price is down 40% in that time, significantly under-performing the market.
While the last five years has been tough for China Union Holdings shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the five years over which the share price declined, China Union Holdings' earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 39% each year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 10% compound annual share price fall. So investors might expect EPS to bounce back -- or they may have previously foreseen the EPS decline. With a P/E ratio of 59.81, it's fair to say the market sees a brighter future for the business.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
This free interactive report on China Union Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
Investors should note that there's a difference between China Union Holdings' total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price change, which we've covered above. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Its history of dividend payouts mean that China Union Holdings' TSR, which was a 24% drop over the last 5 years, was not as bad as the share price return.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that China Union Holdings shareholders are down 18% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 8.0%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 4% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with China Union Holdings .
But note: China Union Holdings may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.