Stifel forecasts an S&P 500 decline of roughly 10% by the end of Q3

Stifel argued on Monday that the S&P 500 (SP500) is positioned for a correction, predicting that the next 500 points for the S&P 500 will be towards the downside.

“We forecast a decline in the S&P 500 to about 4,750 in 2Q or 3Q24, a correction of roughly 10%,” the investment bank's macro portfolio strategy team stated. “While most strategists were expecting a recession last year or are eagerly attempting to call the start of one in the next year, we have been of the view that the ~5 quarters 1Q22 to 2Q23 were a ‘pseudo-recession’ and the Fed already harvested all the normal post-recession disinflation we would expect.”

Going into this week, the S&P 500 sat at 5,222 after bouncing back 5.2% since April 19, when the benchmark equity index began rebounding after a previous swoon. The index sits just 42 points away from its all-time trading high of 5,264.85, which was observed back on March 28.

For investors tracking the status of the benchmark S&P 500 index, here are some popular mutual funds and exchange traded funds to note:

(FXAIX), (VFIAX), (VFFSX), (SPY), (VOO), (IVV), (RSP), (SSO), (UPRO), (SH), (SDS) and (SPXU).