It's been a good week for Expensify, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXFY) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 6.6% to US$1.77. Revenues of US$34m came in a modest 3.1% below forecasts. Statutory losses were a relative bright spot though, with a per-share loss of US$0.04 coming in a substantial 54% smaller than what the analysts had expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Expensify

Taking into account the latest results, the six analysts covering Expensify provided consensus estimates of US$138.4m revenue in 2024, which would reflect a perceptible 4.0% decline over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 57% to US$0.20. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$141.3m and losses of US$0.32 per share in 2024. While the revenue estimates fell, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts making a very favorable reduction to losses per share in particular.

The analysts have cut their price target 5.3% to US$3.00per share, suggesting that the declining revenue was a more crucial indicator than the forecast reduction in losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Expensify analyst has a price target of US$5.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$2.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Expensify's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 5.3% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 11% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 13% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Expensify is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Even so, long term profitability is more important for the value creation process. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Expensify's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Expensify analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Expensify that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.