Investors in Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:AVAH) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.3% to close at US$2.50 following the release of its quarterly results. Revenue hit US$491m in line with forecasts, although the company reported a statutory loss per share of US$0.06 that was somewhat smaller than the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Aveanna Healthcare Holdings

After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Aveanna Healthcare Holdings are now predicting revenues of US$1.98b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 3.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 63% to US$0.22. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.97b and losses of US$0.11 per share in 2024. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Aveanna Healthcare Holdings even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a sizeable expansion in per-share losses.

The consensus price target held steady at US$2.62, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$3.00 and the most bearish at US$1.60 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Aveanna Healthcare Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 6.1% p.a. growth over the last three years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Aveanna Healthcare Holdings is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Aveanna Healthcare Holdings. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$2.62, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Aveanna Healthcare Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Aveanna Healthcare Holdings (1 is concerning!) that you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.