As you might know, Porch Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:PRCH) just kicked off its latest first-quarter results with some very strong numbers. Revenues and losses per share were both better than expected, with revenues of US$115m leading estimates by 8.2%. Statutory losses were smaller than the analystsexpected, coming in at US$0.14 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Porch Group after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Porch Group

Taking into account the latest results, Porch Group's six analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$458.8m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are supposed to decline, shrinking 17% from last year to US$0.92. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$467.8m and US$0.99 per share in losses. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.

The consensus price target fell 10% to US$4.75despite the forecast for smaller losses next year. It looks like the ongoing lack of profitability is starting to weigh on valuations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Porch Group analyst has a price target of US$6.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$3.75. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Porch Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 43% p.a. growth over the last three years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 13% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Porch Group.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Porch Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Porch Group's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Porch Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Porch Group (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.