BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:BCRX) just released its quarterly report and things are looking bullish. Revenues beat expectations coming in atUS$93m, ahead of estimates by 8.5%. Statutory losses were somewhat smaller thanthe analysts expected, coming in at US$0.17 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

After the latest results, the ten analysts covering BioCryst Pharmaceuticals are now predicting revenues of US$401.3m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a decent 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 40% to US$0.61. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$395.1m and losses of US$0.63 per share in 2024. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.

The average price target held steady at US$14.00, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values BioCryst Pharmaceuticals at US$30.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$6.00. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 18% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 51% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 18% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$14.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on BioCryst Pharmaceuticals. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (including 1 which shouldn't be ignored) .

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