Investors in Essent Group Ltd. (NYSE:ESNT) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.1% to close at US$56.53 following the release of its quarterly results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$298m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Essent Group surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$1.70 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Essent Group

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Essent Group's seven analysts is for revenues of US$1.24b in 2024. This would reflect a decent 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$6.74, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.21b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.59 in 2024. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$61.90, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Essent Group at US$65.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$57.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Essent Group is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Essent Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 14% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 5.8% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.6% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Essent Group to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Essent Group's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Essent Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Essent Group that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.