A week ago, Kinross Gold Corporation (TSE:K) came out with a strong set of first-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$1.1b, some 4.2% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$0.09, 23% ahead of expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Kinross Gold

Following the latest results, Kinross Gold's nine analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$4.52b in 2024. This would be an okay 2.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 9.2% to US$0.32 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$4.38b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.33 in 2024. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest results. Although there was a an okay to revenue, the consensus also made a small dip in its earnings per share forecasts.

There's been no major changes to the price target of CA$11.05, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast revenue and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Kinross Gold analyst has a price target of CA$13.76 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$7.73. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Kinross Gold's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 3.9% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.9% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 12% annually. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Kinross Gold is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$11.05, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Kinross Gold analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Kinross Gold (1 is concerning) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.