Ensign Energy Services Inc. (TSE:ESI) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.3% to CA$2.30 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Revenues came in at CA$431m, in line with estimates, while Ensign Energy Services reported a statutory loss of CA$0.01 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Ensign Energy Services

After the latest results, the consensus from Ensign Energy Services' seven analysts is for revenues of CA$1.68b in 2024, which would reflect a measurable 3.5% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to nosedive 57% to CA$0.083 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CA$1.73b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.21 in 2024. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CA$3.71 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ensign Energy Services at CA$5.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$2.75. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Ensign Energy Services' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 4.6% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 6.1% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 9.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that Ensign Energy Services' revenues are expected to shrink slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Ensign Energy Services. Sadly they also cut their revenue estimates, although at least the company is expected to perform a bit better than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$3.71, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Ensign Energy Services analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Ensign Energy Services (including 1 which is significant) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.