Today is shaping up negative for Energy Fuels Inc. (TSE:EFR) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to this year's forecasts. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as the analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously. Surprisingly the share price has been buoyant, rising 13% to CA$8.07 in the past 7 days. It will be interesting to see if the downgrade has an impact on buying demand for the company's shares.

Following the downgrade, the latest consensus from Energy Fuels' four analysts is for revenues of US$47m in 2024, which would reflect a reasonable 6.7% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$0.11 per share. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$54m and losses of US$0.041 per share in 2024. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.

Check out our latest analysis for Energy Fuels

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Energy Fuels' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 9.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 40% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Energy Fuels' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses this year, suggesting all may not be well at Energy Fuels. While analysts did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. We wouldn't be surprised to find shareholders feeling a bit shell-shocked, after these downgrades. It looks like analysts have become a lot more bearish on Energy Fuels, and their negativity could be grounds for caution.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Energy Fuels analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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