PBF Energy Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE:PBF) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 3.8% to hit US$8.6b. PBF Energy also reported a statutory profit of US$0.86, which was an impressive 31% above what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for PBF Energy

Taking into account the latest results, the eleven analysts covering PBF Energy provided consensus estimates of US$32.2b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a definite 15% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plummet 59% to US$6.48 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$36.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.57 in 2024. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about PBF Energy's prospects following the latest results, administering a substantial drop in revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of US$57.92, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on PBF Energy's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values PBF Energy at US$71.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$45.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 19% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 17% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.0% per year. It's pretty clear that PBF Energy's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$57.92, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple PBF Energy analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that PBF Energy is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those are a bit unpleasant...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.