Shareholders of G1 Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:GTHX) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 13% to US$4.49 following its latest first-quarter results. Despite revenues of US$14m falling 4.0% short of expectations, statutory losses of US$0.20 per share were well contained, and in line with analyst models. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for G1 Therapeutics

Taking into account the latest results, the five analysts covering G1 Therapeutics provided consensus estimates of US$69.4m revenue in 2024, which would reflect a considerable 17% decline over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to hold steady at around US$0.59. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$68.9m and losses of US$0.67 per share in 2024. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed G1 Therapeutics'future looks a little different to the past, with a notable improvement in the loss per share forecasts in particular.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$8.50, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic G1 Therapeutics analyst has a price target of US$12.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$5.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 23% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 45% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 18% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that G1 Therapeutics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that G1 Therapeutics' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on G1 Therapeutics. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for G1 Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for G1 Therapeutics that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.