Last week's profit announcement from Jinzai Food Group Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:003000) was underwhelming for investors, despite headline numbers being robust. Our analysis uncovered some concerning factors that we believe the market might be paying attention to.
Zooming In On Jinzai Food GroupLtd's Earnings
In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.
Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.
Over the twelve months to March 2024, Jinzai Food GroupLtd recorded an accrual ratio of 0.22. Therefore, we know that it's free cashflow was significantly lower than its statutory profit, which is hardly a good thing. In fact, it had free cash flow of CN¥63m in the last year, which was a lot less than its statutory profit of CN¥244.0m. Notably, Jinzai Food GroupLtd had negative free cash flow last year, so the CN¥63m it produced this year was a welcome improvement. Having said that, there is more to the story. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit
Given the accrual ratio, it's not overly surprising that Jinzai Food GroupLtd's profit was boosted by unusual items worth CN¥24m in the last twelve months. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. If Jinzai Food GroupLtd doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.
Our Take On Jinzai Food GroupLtd's Profit Performance
Summing up, Jinzai Food GroupLtd received a nice boost to profit from unusual items, but could not match its paper profit with free cash flow. Considering all this we'd argue Jinzai Food GroupLtd's profits probably give an overly generous impression of its sustainable level of profitability. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. When we did our research, we found 2 warning signs for Jinzai Food GroupLtd (1 is concerning!) that we believe deserve your full attention.
Our examination of Jinzai Food GroupLtd has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.