The Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:TMO) First-Quarter Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

It's been a good week for Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:TMO) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 5.3% to US$574. Thermo Fisher Scientific reported US$10b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.46 beat expectations, being 4.8% higher than what the analysts expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Thermo Fisher Scientific

Taking into account the latest results, Thermo Fisher Scientific's 26 analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be US$43.1b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 3.1% to US$16.30. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$43.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$16.38 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$618, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Thermo Fisher Scientific analyst has a price target of US$677 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$540. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Thermo Fisher Scientific is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Thermo Fisher Scientific's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 1.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Thermo Fisher Scientific.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Thermo Fisher Scientific analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Thermo Fisher Scientific you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.